While it seemed there might be some trends of note around the middle of August; reversals in grains, energies, and bond markets in the last week of the month helped push managed futures into the red, with the Newedge CTA Index reporting managed futures down -1.32% in August.
While a loss of just over 1% isn’t the end of the world, the bigger context is starting to get worrisome – with the loss marking a fourth consecutive losing month, and the year to date performance now negative (-1.30%), threatening a fourth losing year out of the past 5. We can’t help but remember the old lady in the basketball classic Hoosiers, who tells Coach Norman Dale:
“Sun don’t shine on the same dog’s ass every day, but, mister you ain’t seen a ray of light since you got here.”
For many who became interested in managed futures following their 2008 performance, they sure “ain’t” seen a ray of light since they got here in 2009/2010. Here’s to hoping some worrying and calling out the recent losses will cause a contrarian rally heading into the end of the year…. And by the way, that guy who hadn’t seen the ray of light since he got to town, he did go on to win the championship (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Here’s the main managed futures indices performance for the year:
N/R = Not Reported Yet
Indices listed in order from oldest to newest.
Disclaimer: Past Performance is not necessarily indicative to future results.