Tag: $NG_F

09 Mar 2012

The Bull Turns Three

As you have no doubt seen in any number of places online and off already today – March 9th marks the three year anniversary of the global asset rally which began on March 9th, 2009 – as ugly a day for investors as you will find, with US stock markets closing at a 12 year low after having lost over 50% of their value in just over a year and a half. It really seemed like the end of the (financial) world.

Today the rally off of the 2009 low turns three, and talk about this birthday has been popular among the main financial news networks. Not one to skip out on the trend, we decided look at how the markets typically tracked by managed futures programs have done since the so called “market” hit its financial crisis lows.

30 Mar 2012

Long-only Commodity ETFs v. Futures- March 2012

Here’s our monthly look at how the various Commodity ETFs are stacking up against the commodities they are supposed to track. Futures trading is complicated, presents a risk of loss, and isn’t for everyone – especially since past market performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future results – but given the numbers, we’re left scratching our heads. We’ve yet to receive a good answer to the question: why invest in an ETF when you can just roll December contracts annually?

11 Apr 2012

How Low Can it Go?

Since the peak in mid-2008, natural gas has been playing an impressive game of limbo. Just when you thought it couldn’t go any lower, down it goes. The short side of this trade is doing well for now, but how much lower can prices go?

20 Apr 2012

UNG- The Cautionary Tale

Every month, we publish a table that compares popular long-only commodity fund performance with the results of purchasing a December futures contract in the same commodity and rolling that contract annually. Typically, the futures contract outperforms- but this has always been most clear in Natural Gas and the UNG fund. As if you needed more convincing to stay away from those long-only funds….

11 May 2012

Sky-High Talk on Low Natural Gas Prices

We capped off our conference binge this week with an in-flight chat with someone sporting 35 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry (who wishes to remain anonymous). We’ve talked about this market a few times recently, wondering what was in store, and our in-flight companion was eager to share with us his thoughts on natural gas prices.

01 Jun 2012

Long-only Commodity ETFs vs. Futures- May 2012

Time for our monthly look at how the long only commodity ETFs are performing versus simply holding the December futures contract and rolling annually. This month was brutal for most of the commodities markets, but which loser lost the least? futures contracts or ETFs?

14 Jun 2012

Nat Gas: Return of the Widowmaker?

The natural gas market has been boring in the last few years – just a shadow of its former volatile self. But today, the price spiked out of nowhere. Is this a sign of things to come, or just a brief glimpse of why natural gas was once called the widowmaker?

25 Jun 2012

Has June Crossed the Line?

The June bounce is not the encore trend followers wanted after May’s sell-off. Since many trend followers exit positions when prices cross over the 100-day moving average, we wanted to know: which markets have crossed the line so far this month?

02 Jul 2012

Long-only Commodity ETFs vs. Futures- June 2012

Corn and natural gas futures bounced back from the May slide, while crude oil continued its downward trajectory. But in all three cases you would have been better off in December futures contracts than in long-only commodity ETFs. If you’re going to adopt a long-only strategy, why invest in an ETF when you can just roll December futures contracts annually?