Gundlach’s Next Call – Short Gold

Like most predictions, calls for markets to go higher or lower have a 50% chance of getting it right, and a 50% chance of coming up short. But more than just getting the direction right, people want to know if prognosticators can identify the big moves, and investing heavyweight Jeff Gundlach of Doubleline has made a few outstanding calls in the last year. Cases in point: his suggestions to go short Apple/long Natural Gas in April of 2012 and short Yen/long Nikkei in December 2012. Besides spurring lots of attention, Gundlach’s recommendations both posted some impressive gains when we looked at them earlier this year.

With those two big calls looking to be wrapped up, does Gundlach have another predication to follow? Yep … Gold.  Just yesterday we wrote about how Gold is coming off a historic high, and has been continuing on a downward slope. It just so happens, Gundlach predicts a continuation of falling gold prices:

“I’m not really that fond of gold,” Gundlach said. “I think gold makes it to 12 handle, maybe $1280.”

Gundlach’s earlier predictions proved quite prescient… but with Gold already down significantly, his call here is more in the domain of trend following rather than top and bottom calls. But as long as he keeps making bold predications like this, we’ll find out in the long run whether or not he’s just flipping coins.

By the way – here’s Gundlach’s previous two “calls” through present day.

 Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Short Apply/long Natural Gas continued its upward course, peaking at nearly a 75% return in March (and remember, his original call was to leverage both up to 10x). Since then, a bit of a rebound in Apple and a stall in the Natural Gas climb has suggested that the run might due for a break.

And how about that short Yen/long Nikkei call from the beginning of 2013?

 Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

It’s a similar story, with an amazing run up that has fallen off a cliff over the past month. Since the beginning of 2013, Short Yen/Long Nikkei surged up to 44% gains in May, before dropping back down to just under 30% now. Quite a few CTAs we track were enjoying one or both of these trends, and we saw many of them suffer the same loss of open trade equity toward the end of May as Japan’s market and currency suddenly reversed directions.

One comment

  1. He also not too long ago made a call for long silver. Wish I hadn’t listened.

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Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.