What’s Happened Thus Far in 2016

Twenty-sixteen is proving to be quite a cyclical year. What started as a free fall for stocks, world stocks, bonds, and commodities in the first two months ended with a quick recovery the months following. At one point the current leaders on the scoreboard were down -7.74% (World Stocks) -7.25% (Commodities) -5.11% (Stocks) and -4.80% (Real Estate). Now all of those are not just up on the year, but stocks are almost double digits, with long-only commodities up +5.08% due to the recent surge in crude oil {Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Source: All ETF performance data from Morningstar.com
Sources: Managed Futures = SG CTA Index, Cash = 13 week T-Bill rate,
Bonds = Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND),
Hedge Funds= IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy (QAI)
Commodities = iShares GSCI ETF (GSG);
Real Estate = iShares DJ Real Estate ETF (IYR);
World Stocks = iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index Fund ETF (ACWX);
US Stocks = SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

On the other side of the cycle, Real Estate was at once up 16% on the year, and has given back 14% of that over the last four months. Managed Futures was once up 7.27% to start the year and is now -3.34% in the red YTD.

Stocks are screaming to new all-time highs after the election, the U.S. Dollar is following suit, and surges in Copper and Crude (while gold is in free fall). If we would have told you this is what the markets would look like one month into Trump winning the election, you would have called us naïve. As for Managed Futures, there’s hope in the air despite having four consecutive months of negative returns. Now that these trends have started managers are hoping they are here to stay — so they can get in on them to return to the black before years’ end. Here’s hoping.


The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

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