Risk On/Risk Off Market Snapshot: June 2013
As we’ve been stating the past couple of months, the markets are on the move, and our monthly peek at the Risk On/Off stats provide a little bit of proof of that. We’re still not seeing the same numbers of Risk On/Off days as last year, but in June, we did see the biggest average move up or down of the year.
Record Volume Growth at Dubai Mercantile Exchange, Still Lags CME & ICE
The DME just came off a record trading volume this past month, giving optimism to establish the Oman crude oil futures contract. While the Oman has a long way to go, it on instills a potential path for the CME to control their previous dominance as the number one exchange, as the CME essentially owns the DME.
Commodity ETF Performance – June
Despite our best efforts to put commodity ETFs to bed for good, they continue to outperform the competition and prove us wrong so far in 2013. We’ll see is this is the same picture at the end of the year. For now, see where ETF’s outperformed December Futures this month.
Managed Futures down -1.49% in June
Managed futures followed losses in May with more in June, with the Newedge CTA Index finishing at -1.49% to close out the 2nd quarter with the first back to back losses of 2013. It was a strange month, with the biggest trend reversals coming in the markets managed futures are supposed to be diversifying you from – stock indices (selling off in June after 6 straight months of gains).
Newsletter: Managed Futures in Rising Interest Rate Periods
Our nation’s Independence Day is just around the corner, and since most of you will get to enjoy a 4-day weekend, we wanted our newsletter front and center to kick off the week. Since it’s a shortened week, our newsletter is too, looking at some third party research by Welton Investment Corp., who tackle the timely topic of how classic trend following models perform across different market sectors during periods of rising interest rates.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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