Weekend Reads
It may have been a holiday-shortened week thanks to President’s Day, but it definitely wasn’t a quiet one. We’ll find out next week if this was more than just a blip in the low-volatility environment we’ve been witnessing, but until then, here’s what we’re reading headed into the weekend.
There’s Something About Dairy
When it comes to commodity markets being threatened by the latest fiscal crisis in Washington, dairy futures always seem to be front and center. A few months ago it was the “Dairy Cliff” coinciding with the fiscal cliff. This time around, with the sequestration looming, dairy (along with cattle and hogs) may be facing disruptions again.
Kicking Gold While It’s Down
Just two days ago we published a post pointing out that the decline in gold prices had caused the biggest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to fall below its 100-week moving average for only the 2nd time since 2004. But after seeing the “death cross” chart pattern yesterday, the financial web has exploded with pessimism for gold.
Will Trend Followers Love the Bond Bear?
The prospect of a bear market in bonds has been a regular source of excitement for us, and no one knows bonds quite like the fixed-income expert, CEO and CIO of 2100 Xenon Jay Feuerstein. We were pleased to have an opportunity to hear him today at the annual 2100 Xenon breakfast presentation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business discussing interest rates, the potential for a bond bear market, and what it could mean for trend followers.
Bye Bye Gold?
Gold has been on the decline over the last few months, and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF has been tumbling right alongside. But last week, a significant milestone in the decline was reached: GLD dipped below its 100-week moving average. And our look at GLD’s track record yielded some surprising insights.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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