Crude Projections
Violence is erupting all over the Middle East. The U.S. government said that it will not make a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So why isn’t Crude skyward bound? If you ask some, it may high-frequency trading (HFT) hijinx crossing over into the realm of commodities.
Newsletter: Sell Everything and Buy Stocks
Our weekly newsletter is out, and we’ve decided to give up. We’re throwing in the towel and recommending everyone sell their managed futures investments and put it all in the stock market. Ok, not really, we can’t really ignore this rally anymore. But does anyone really trust these past 3.5 years? Does anyone really think the next 3.5 years will be that good for stocks? And if not, how should you prepare?
The Future of Natural Gas
Natural gas has bounced back from the lows we witnessed earlier in the year, but it remains a shadow of its former volatile self. Ample supply and limited distribution opportunities are still keeping prices low, but a new plan on the horizon could change that: the looming decision from the U.S. Department of Energy on whether or not we can export our supply in the near future.
John Henry Looking for Moneyball
One of the most famous names to come out of the CTA space is probably John Henry – and mostly for his success as the owner of the Boston Red Sox. However, just as his foray into the world of sports is having a tough year, his main CTA, GlobalAnalytics, is also suffering – with a new max drawdown and dwindling assets.
Weekend Reads
The August doldrums are officially behind us. September has gone risk-on in spite of a somewhat disappointing NFP report at the beginning of the month. The biggest company in the world has just introduced the newest version of its flagship product (the iPhone 5), the European Central Bank is promising to keep the Euro intact, and Bernanke has unleashed QE3 (or QE∞, considering the open-ended nature). All in all, not a boring week, and certainly more fireworks than we’ve seen in a while, but there’s more to see as we head into the weekend: our weekend reads.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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