Oil, War, and the Strait of Hormuz: What current events look like through the eyes of an energy trader
In this episode, Jeff Malec sits down with returning “resident oil guy” Brent Belote of Cayler Capital to unpack one of the wildest stretches in energy markets since COVID and Russia/Ukraine. They dig into recent oil volatility, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and why the Straits of Hormuz still matter more than most people […]
OpenSnow’s Joel Gratz built a Pod Shop for Powder Days: the PMs are Meteorologists and the Returns are Faceshots. Send It!
What happens when a data-obsessed mind that could have been optimizing portfolios decides to optimize powder days instead? This episode features meteorologist and @OpenSnow founder Joel Gratz in a deep dive on snow, skiing, and the science of weather forecasting, told through the lens of someone who treats every incoming storm like a market opportunity. […]
Drone Wars, Space Intelligence, and AI-powered Defense Tech Investing with Ian Winer of Center15 Capital
In this episode of The Derivative, Jeff Malec sits down with Ian Winer, West Point grad and founder of Center 15 Capital, to unpack how modern warfare and national security are being reshaped by drones, AI, and space. Using the recent conflict with Iran as a case study, they explore how cheap one-way attack drones […]
When Skynet Writes a Substack: The AI Doom Piece That Moved Markets
Look, we’ve been talking about this. Way back in August of ’25, Jeff hopped on his solo Summer Six-Pack pod, no guest, no agenda, just a guy with a microphone and some things on his mind, and dropped this little nugget about AI: “The end game of the AI race is massive deflation and an […]
SuperCars, Salad, and Sumo Wrestlers: Inside One River’s Systematic Risk Mitigation Playbook with Patrick Kazley
In this episode of The Derivative, Jeff Malec is joined by Patrick Kazley of OneRiver explore how long volatility, convexity, trend following, and systematic macro can be combined in a capital‑efficient way to improve equity compounding and protect portfolios from major drawdowns. They discuss crisis “shapes,” why time-based rebalancing often beats intuitive drawdown triggers, how […]
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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