The Success Equation, Untangling Skill and Luck
We like to read around here – and just recently got done with one that has been on the wish list (it’s more like a… when the kids are quiet for 10 minutes and there’s not a client dinner or conference in town or presentation for a business deal – as time permits list, but […]
Bad Year for Commodities, Whether in ETFs or Futures
Here’s our monthly look at the various commodity ETFs and how they track a simple strategy of buying December futures and rolling them annually. Plus, a comparison to Ag Traders and an overall commodity index. Some Notes: Only 4 on the commodity contracts we’re tracking are positive on the year, suggesting that buying and holding […]
Articles You Could be Reading this Weekend
CBOE Taps Rate Concerns With Futures on Bond Volatility – (Bloomberg) Liquid alts suffer big asset drop; MainStay Marketfield takes biggest hit – (Investment News) Mark Rzepczynski (formerly of John Henry) Interview with Michael Covel – (Trend Following Radio) Buyer beware: Liquid alts are not created equal – (Investment News) Hurrah For Quitters – (Five […]
Alternative Links: Trend Following, Managed Futures, and CTAs
Trend Following: A New Anomaly: The Cross-Sectional Profitability of Technical Analysis – (Han, Yang, Zhou) How Trend Following at its core is quite simple – (Top Traders Unplugged) Predicting market direction is silly – (Michael Melissions) Performance: CTAs push on higher in October with more positive returns, says Newedge – (Hedgeweek) Despite Volatile October, North […]
How Endowed is your Endowment?
Vanguard has an interesting whitepaper out about how Endowments performance differs based on their size (sorry all those in the, “it’s not the size of the boat, it’s the motion of the ocean” camp… the large ones do much better), and there’s some interesting tidbits in it even though it’s a glorified ad for the type of low cost indexing Vanguard is known for. But instead of their normal tilt toward the retail investor, they’re targeting the endowment space – breaking down small, medium, and large endowments vs low cost index funds and concluding that small and mid size endowments shouldn’t try and replicate large endowments success – they should just do low cost index funds (otherwise known as talking your book).
First, some of their cool charts:
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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