June 2012: Make or Break for Managed Futures
Our weekly newsletter is up, and we’re looking forward again. This time, our glass-half-empty side is considering what could go wrong this month, and the consequences for managed futures as an asset class should the worst-case scenario come to pass…
Newsletter: Follow That Trend
This week’s newsletter is out, and following last week’s call to consider managed futures in light of global economic tensions is nicely complimented by a more in depth look at the asset class’ most prominent strategy: trend following.
You see, even though managed futures growth over the past two decades has seen the dawn of other strategy types within the asset class– like options, agriculture, currency, specialty (fixed income, stock index, metals, etc), spread, discretionary, and multi-strategy approaches– trend following is still the bread and butter of the world of managed futures. In fact, in our recent breakdown of the CTA industry, trend following was far and away the dominant strategy. However, not all trend followers necessarily cut from the same cloth. We’ve mentioned more than a few times that there are numerous ways to skin the trend following cat (sorry cat lovers).
Batter Up: Managed Futures and the Coming Crisis
This week our newsletter looks at some of the looming “what-ifs” on the horizon – the Euro’s troubles, the US fiscal cliff, a Chinese slowdown – and how managed futures might fare if the worst-case scenario became reality.
Why are you Disappointed with your Alternative Investments?
This week our newsletter dives into a recent research piece from Welton Investment Corporation on the role of alternative investments in pension funds. Their work contains some excellent insight, and inspired us to take the inquiry even further…
The Dirty Business of Grave Digging
We sometimes forget that important lessons can be gleaned not just from those CTAs that do well – but also those who failed. But how do these “blow-ups” happen? Is there a pattern to blow-ups we can learn so that we can better avoid them, or even avoid some percentage of them in the future? We decided to go grave digging in our database of CTA results to find out.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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