Commodity Futures vs. ETF Performance – August
Whenever we need a pick me up or something to brighten our day, the underperformance of commodity ETF’s usually does the trick. But the ETF’s have held in there remarkably well so far this year against a simple strategy of buy and hold the December futures contract and roll it annually (down just 26 basis points on average). The real story, however, is the underperformance of either long only strategy.
Risk On/Off Market Snapshot: August 2013
Despite some big moves in August across energies, grains, and bonds in august, there were not no risk on/ risk off days…as we define it. This presents itself as a rather unique situation as there was a pattern of increased volatility in these markets, but they didn’t move together. Managed futures don’t just need markets moving on their own – they need them moving on their own in a consistent direction. (past performance is not necessarily indicative to future results).
Managed Futures Down -1.32% in August
While it seemed there might be some trends of note around the middle of August; reversals in grains, energies, and bond markets in the last week of the month helped push managed futures into the red, with the Newedge CTA Index reporting managed futures down -1.32% in August. While a loss of just over 1% isn’t the end of the world, the bigger context is starting to get worrisome – with the loss marking a fourth consecutive losing month, and the year to date performance now negative (-1.30%), threatening a fourth losing year out of the past 5. Here’s to hoping some worrying and calling out the recent losses will cause a contrarian rally heading into the end of the year.
Finviz: We Love You, You’re Perfect, Now Change
Dear Finviz, Whenever we need a quick glimpse of the futures markets, we know we can count on you. But as we’ve mentioned, the futures side needs some work. For instance, you’re missing some of the most heavily traded contracts in the world, by only displaying two Bond futures markets. If we can be so bold – we’ve come up with an alternative layout which would do just the thing. What do you think about adding these new markets and adjusting the layout! This user, for one – would be an even more loyal fan!
Will a Negative Roll Yield Shut Down Managed Futures Bond Tailwind?
Legendary Bond trader ponders if many of the greatest investors have the 30 years of falling interest rates to thank for their success. We see similarities to this in the managed futures world, as it provided a boon to many managers. With bonds nearly 70% in the past 16 weeks (the highest change in 15 years), and managed futures didn’t so well in this dress rehearsal of rising interest rates, it’s left us wondering; Will a down trend in bonds treat managed futures as well as the 30 yr up trend has?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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