Managed Futures: $300 Billion and Counting
Managed futures has come a long way from the days when it was a largely unheard-of corner of the managed money industry. While hedge funds used to dominate the field, the latest asset flow statistics indicate that investors focused on reducing their tail risk are increasingly turning to CTAs.
No Brakes Ahead of the Fiscal Cliff
The term “fiscal cliff” has come to encapsulate the collective fear for the future of the US economy – that we’re careening toward disaster. But recent employment figures suggest that the possibility of careening over the cliff’s edge is not being taken very seriously… yet.
PFGBest Update: Speeding Up
As many have already heard, there have been some new developments in the PFGBest bankruptcy proceedings. We’ll continue to follow the situation closely, but all in all, there’s really only one thing to say: it’s about time.
You Are Bad at Making Predictions
There’s a new pop-stats book making the rounds, and it’s been generating quite a bit of buzz – at least, as far as pop-stats books go. Nate Silver, who is probably best known as the author of the New York Times’ FiveThiryEight politics blog, delves into the tricky art of predictioneering in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t. It looks promising, and is certainly going to be on our reading list in the near future.
Weekend Reads
Judging by the post-debate wrap-up, fact checkers, Big Bird, and Jim Lehrer all had the either the best or worst night of their lives. This week stocks resumed their slow slog upward, jobs numbers showed meek but continuing improvement, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics found themselves caught in the crossfire of competing political spin machines. If you’ve had enough of Big Bird and the BLS, then we have just the thing for you: our weekend reads.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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