6 Unscientific Ways to Tell the Market is at the Top
It’s safe to say that many investors have lost money trying to predict the turn of a market, or vice versa; believing that the market is still a bull market as it drops 25% in a couple weeks. But instead of telling you what is, or what isn’t, we figured we’d show you some things that could potentially be warning signs, and you can decide for yourself?. So here are the “6 could be Warning Signs,” that the market is at the top.
Would You Invest in this “Hedge Fund?”
There aren’t a lot of investors excited about investing in something which hasn’t made any real money the past five years…Which leads us to the simple question of whether you would find the track record of the following “hedge fund” appetizing? Would it warrant an investment from you? What’s your first gut instinct on it? Most likely a pass…
Is the Bear Market just Hibernating?
We’re happy to see our friends at J. Lyons Fund Management getting more involved in social media with a blog, twitter handle, and now an emailed newsletter. Here’s some great stats from their latest piece hinting that the bear might not be dead… just hibernating: Stats Courtesy: J. Lyons Fund Management
Are You Being a Phil Mickelson?
What do we mean by that? We’re talking about investors tending to overweight what is performing well, versus maintaining a long term investment horizon. Phil Mickelson knows Augusta National through and through, and thinks he doesn’t need clubs for the long chip (100 yards). We can’t help but think the long chipping clubs are the “Alternative Investment Clubs” of financial world, as they haven’t been up to par performance wise
Floating Gold (Whale Poop) worth more than Commodity Gold?
Well, let’s see how much that Whale Poop is really worth. While there is not exchange rate for Whale Poop, the guy was handed 100,000 British Pounds (about $167,000 US Dollars) for 6 pounds of ambergris.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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