Weekend Reads – October 11, 2013
The impact of the shutdown continues to expand as The U.S. Energy Information Administration will cease operations after today, meaning no new inventory data will be available until post-shutdown.
Managed Futures Linkfest:
A contrarian cornucopia of articles have popped up recently, and the only way to look at it in our opinion… is as the old ‘headline indicator’, or as Warren Buffet says – “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. The headlines are definitely fearful of managed futures right now… is it time to be fearful? Without further ado, Must See Managed Future Links.
Active vs Passive Commodity Exposure — September
Our monthly chart tracking various commodity futures and their ETF’s counterparts is out. We compare them side by side as if you were buying and holding each one since the beginning of the year. But the key for us is looking at how long/short commodities (or tactical commodities, or active commodities – as they are sometimes called) fared against this buy and hold strategy . Take a look.
Weekend Reads
It would be rather difficult to talk about this week’s events, without mentioning the government shutdown. While it doesn’t appear that the markets were affected, the debt ceiling could be a different story. We’ve got a quick video explaining the debt ceiling, and lots of fun articles about Science, Football, Real Estate, and Ferris Bueller.
Chart of the Week: Does the Government Shutdown Cause a Market Scare?
With the a compromise on the government shutdown far from over, the question of everyone’s mind from and investment standpoint is, will the stock market take a hit? The natural conclusion could be that investors will pull out their money based on uncertainty of when a compromise will be made. But is that the truth or just the perception based on past shutdowns? Here’s a look at S&P 500 returns after every shutdown dating back to the 1970’s.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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