If Bill Gates Were as Tall as His Money
The move in Apple’s stock over the past few years has been nothing short of unbelievable – going from $90 at the start of ’09 to near $600 today (566% gain), and from $400 just a short two and a half months ago (50% gain). The odds of a stock doing what Apple has just done would be on the order of 1 in a million or so according to standard statistical methods.
But here’s the thing – these types of outlier moves (both up and down) happen way more frequently than once every million times, highlighting one of the often forgotten aspects of the investment world, that financial matters are not normally distributed. That is, you can’t use normal statistical measures (even when using the actual outlier data…) to make observations about what may happen moving forward.
Reminders on the Risks in Gold(man Sachs)
If you work in or care about finance, and you don’t live in the stone age, odds are you’ve seen the Goldman Sachs resignation letter. If you haven’t, read it now. And pay attention, because this is important. The letter highlights a change in culture at Goldman Sachs, from client focused to bottom line driven. This kind of change is alarming, and worth closer examination.
UBS and Barclays to the Rescue- Maybe?
Remember that one time we said that the industry needed to rise up and make MF Global clients whole? Well, we still stand by that statement, but this isn’t exactly what we meant by it. With news of UBS and Barclays stepping up to the plate to purchase claims to MF Global money, we’re left wonder- what, exactly, is the catch here?
Is Your Portfolio Buckled In?
When you’re a managed futures nerd, nothing is more perplexing than behavior contrary to data. We’re more than familiar with the return and risk metrics that make the case for managed futures as a portfolio diversifier (and publically share such any chance we get), yet the bulk of advisers still seem to shy away from recommending the asset class to their clients. In lieu of scratching our heads from now until eternity, we decided it was time to do some digging.
When Disaster Spells Opportunity (And When it Just Spells Disaster)
It’s strange to think that it’s been a year since the devastating earthquake first hit Japan, sending the markets roiling as a catastrophic tsunami followed up the initial destruction in Mother Nature’s 1-2 punch (with a little manmade flavor added by the nuclear reactor meltdown). At the time, the silver lining to the disaster was that it seemed like the perfect set-up to let managed futures shine via their historic crisis performance. Unfortunately for managed futures investors (but fortunately for the rest of the world), the tsunami and nuclear meltdown never turned into the full blown global economic crisis many at the time predicted it would.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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