Bridgewater Growing Bearish on Bonds
We’ve been waiting for the 30+ year bull market in bonds to come to an end and a mega down trend to emerge. What can we say – when we think about the tailwind that higher interest rates can provide to managed futures programs and the prospect of a nice sustained downward trend in bond prices… Who can blame us for getting excited? But we (and the rest of the managed futures world) have had to wait, suffer the disappointment of false breakouts lower, and bide our time until the real downtrend emerges. But now it looks like the anticipation has swept up one of the biggest players in industry – Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio.
The Allure of Graphic Predictions
It’s always a good idea to take research from a massive energy conglomerate with a grain of salt, but Exxon’s latest piece – an attempt to look 30 years into the future of the global energy market – caught our eye. We’re more of the technical sort who will react to price moves as they happen instead of where prices will go based off of these long term outlooks, but we couldn’t resist highlighting some of the mind-blowing stats in this piece.
Futures Account Insurance Getting Traction
As the year draws to a close, it’s hard not to reflect on the tumultuous times experienced in the futures industry. A great deal of progress has been made in enhancing customer protections, but there is still work to be done, particularly in what we view as one of the most significant arenas: insuring client funds against an MF Global/PFG type clearing firm failure.
Creeping Towards Justice for Corzine?
As if the loss of customer funds wasn’t bad enough, we’ve had to spend the past year knowing that Jon Corzine, architect of MF Global’s collapse, was a free man. More than a few people we’ve talked to hold a serious grudge against this man…we certainly can’t blame them. But a new report out of Congress is giving us a glimmer of hope that Corzine may yet suffer the consequences of his decisions at MF Global.
Calling All Introducing Brokers- Let’s Shake Up the NFA
It’s been a rough year for the futures industry. Between the MF Global bankruptcy and fraud at PFGBest, investors have had their faith shaken in a system that had, for years, been considered beyond reproach. These events didn’t just unnerve investors, though. It also highlighted what many in the industry have known for years- the NFA needs a shake up. And if you’re an IB, you can help make that happen.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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