Managed Futures down -1% in Jan. (Where’s the Crisis Performance?)
If you took a quick glance at the futures markets year to date on Finviz lately, one might think that trend followers would be giddy over the current market situation. Add on a 5% fall off in stocks in the month of January, and managed futures should be busting out great gains right? Isn’t this what we have them sitting around for – to perform during a down move in US stocks? Enter the difference between non-correlation and negative correlation.
The Football Fan’s Guide to Investments
With the SuperBowl taking place not too far away from Wall Street and the center of the investing world, we thought we help all those football fans who aren’t quite clear on the difference between growth stocks and blue chips, or market timing and risk parity – with this handy guide explaining different investment types in terms of the type of football offensive scheme they most resemble.
Chart of the Week: Sugar’s Textbook Downtrend
Since October Sugar is down 24% with 50 out of the past 70 days down, and now at its lowest point since 2010 (although up a little today). With the large three sugar producers expected to outpace demand by 4.7 metric tons, more traders and CTA’s are short than they are long.. What other factors could be at play?
Natural Gas Volatility Exploding
Well, not too long after we discussed the recent contraction in volatility across managed futures, everyone’s favorite energy as of late, Natural Gas, has done just that sort of volatility uncoiling, with the 3 day Average True Range jumping about 200% in the last week! That’s swings of about $5,600 per contract on average the past few days, levels not seen since back in the volatility hay day of 2008/2009.
Is it time to Google “Alternative Investments?”
There were likely more than a few people searching Google for “Alternative Investment Opportunities” with the Dow down over 600 points in a few days, but just what are they looking for, exactly? Something which isn’t going down..that day? Something which can make money if there is an extended down move? Something which has different return drivers than the stock market? We give a break down of the alternative investment world.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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