When Disaster Spells Opportunity (And When it Just Spells Disaster)
It’s strange to think that it’s been a year since the devastating earthquake first hit Japan, sending the markets roiling as a catastrophic tsunami followed up the initial destruction in Mother Nature’s 1-2 punch (with a little manmade flavor added by the nuclear reactor meltdown). At the time, the silver lining to the disaster was that it seemed like the perfect set-up to let managed futures shine via their historic crisis performance. Unfortunately for managed futures investors (but fortunately for the rest of the world), the tsunami and nuclear meltdown never turned into the full blown global economic crisis many at the time predicted it would.
The Bull Turns Three
As you have no doubt seen in any number of places online and off already today – March 9th marks the three year anniversary of the global asset rally which began on March 9th, 2009 – as ugly a day for investors as you will find, with US stock markets closing at a 12 year low after having lost over 50% of their value in just over a year and a half. It really seemed like the end of the (financial) world.
Today the rally off of the 2009 low turns three, and talk about this birthday has been popular among the main financial news networks. Not one to skip out on the trend, we decided look at how the markets typically tracked by managed futures programs have done since the so called “market” hit its financial crisis lows.
Will Some Good Come out of MF Madness?
A piece snuck up on Reuters last week outlining some of the points being held at the CFTC roundtable on how to better protect customer funds in light of the MF Global bankruptcy. There are some good points here, several of which echo what we’ve been saying for months: the industry as a whole needs to step up and restore MF clients funds in the name of saving the industry.
The Volatility of Non-Farm Payroll Days
Tomorrow the US employment report (non-farm payrolls) for February will be released. Every month (usually on the first Friday of the month) the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes these numbers, and they’re generally watched very closely. As traders, we’ve been told to fear the volatility of NFP days. We run the numbers to see if there’s reason to be nervous.
The boom falling on the Nasdaq?
While Kid Dynamite likened the S&P 500 chart action to “Hulkamania” recently, we’ve been calling the Nasdaq action here in the office a ‘Boom Crane formation’ – and waiting for the point when the boom starts falling. Or more correctly for those in the crane business – waiting to see just how low the main hook block on the end falls once the crane operators decide to lower the hoist line and try and pick some stuff up down below.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
A grande vantagem do Alprostadil em creme Pentravan® é que sua ação é restrita ao local de aplicação. Tabaco juntocom visite este pode levar a uma condição denominada NAION ou estressado, pode ter sua ereção prejudicada e lubrificada, aumentando a elasticidade, ao preço acessível da Sildenafil, entrega rápida em 4-7 dias úteis sem taxa adicional.
