Grains, Nikkei, Lumber top 2013 markets
While people were enamored with Jeff Gundlach’s great call on short Apple/long natural gas, the real trade of the year appears to have been long lumber/short coffee. Here’s our wrap-up of the commodity markets for 2012.
Careening Over the Dairy Cliff
In case all that fear mongering and minute-by-by minute obsessing over the fiscal cliff hasn’t sated your desire for hyperbole and manufactured crisis, you’ll be happy to know that the “cliff” meme is spilling over into other areas, too. The Congressional gridlock we all know and love has prevented our legislators from addressing the expiring farm bill, which could be seriously bad news for any dairy fans out there.
Gold and Stocks Decoupling?
Gold futures have been getting hammered in the last few days (silver too) while stocks have been rebounding nicely back nearly to the 2012 highs we saw in September-October. But would a decoupling between gold and stocks really be all that unusual?
The Best Way to Lose Money on Gold
Diversification is great, and despite coming down off its recent highs, gold has certainly treated investors well over the last few years. But there’s one method of gaining gold exposure that’s almost always a bad idea, and sadly, many investors don’t seem to know it.
Asset Class Scoreboard November Update
The penultimate edition of our 2012 Asset Class Scoreboard is out, and while the order of the scoreboard hasn’t changed since last month, neither the ranking nor the numbers are what we would like to see. There may be one month left before we have the final tally on 2012, but we’re ready to put this year’s performance in the past and (hopefully) have a better asset class scoreboard to report next year.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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