If a Credit Rating Falls in the Forest…
The latest “big” development in Euro-area debt crises came yesterday as Moody downgraded France’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. But rather than being a massive event for the Euro, and for global markets, it was a pretty boring day, leading us to wonder what use these ratings agencies are in the first place.
Look out Below; Watch out Above?
We were just getting ready to comment on the increasingly down mood in many markets lately, but wouldn’t you know it – as soon as we began, the market started to rally… and then we come in this morning to another neon-green rally. So are we looking out below, or watching out above?
The Bitter Taste of the SoyAAPL Trade
No… SoyAAPL isn’t the newest Snapple flavor, it’s the combination of two of the worst-performing investments over the past few months. While most of the stock world has been obsessing over the drop in AAPL lately, those of us in the futures world have been watching grain markets, and particularly Soybeans, plunge at about the same pace.
Obama On, Risk Off
Yesterday the board was green – leading many (including us) to speculate that the markets were in the midst of a “certainty rally,” driven by relief that the election would be decisive. This morning, however, we’re greeted by a pullback across the board. Is today’s “risk off” move stemming from genuine surprise that Obama was re-elected? Has the reality of the fiscal cliff fight finally started to sink in? Or is it something else?
Election Day Risk On Rally
Americans are lining up to cast their vote, but the market isn’t taking the day off. Today’s neon green rally is giving the pundits one last chance to speculate about the connection between the markets and the election – but does today’s trading say anything about what we can expect from today’s vote?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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