Looking for the Top in Bonds, Part XIV
Lest the title gave you the wrong impression, no, we’re not about to call a top in the US bond market. But all of the failed predictions seeking to do just that remind us of why we prefer the managed futures approach: buy bonds and keep with the rally when prices breakout higher, waiting for the day that one of the predictions finally proves true.
The Impending Pig Paucity
We’ve watched all summer as the drought has sent grain prices skyward, and even setting some new records for those markets. Inevitably, those higher grain prices are now sending shockwaves throughout related markets – leading to quite a bit of hand-wringing recently over the bacon supply. But just how much are the markets expecting hog prices to rise?
Gold vs. Stocks: Battle Royale
A recent piece comparing stocks to gold during the recovery caught our eye. Its argument is pretty simple: even with the incredible rally in the stock market, you would have been better off in gold. It’s a strong claim, but a closer looks reveals the importance of timing – whether one is looking forward or back.
Platinum Goes Cliff Diving
Yesterday the news broke that striking miners in South Africa would be returning to work. Supply concerns had been driving the metal higher for weeks, but yesterday’s platinum futures chart shows what can happen when news like this suddenly breaks.
Crude Projections
Violence is erupting all over the Middle East. The U.S. government said that it will not make a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So why isn’t Crude skyward bound? If you ask some, it may high-frequency trading (HFT) hijinx crossing over into the realm of commodities.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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