The August Doldrums
It’s been a strange couple of weeks. It has reminded us of one of those scenes in a horror movie when it gets just a little too quiet… Major markets are trading in a narrow range, volume is down all over the place, twitter’s all abuzz about the VIX falling below 15… just what is going on?
Risk on/Risk Off Market Snapsot- July 2012
The risk on/risk of trade and the overall correlations in the futures markets influence how easy or difficult it is to stay diversified. With another month in the books, it’s time to take another look at how these conditions are playing out this year.
Long-only Commodity ETFs vs. Futures- July 2012
It’s time for our monthly look at how the long-only commodity ETFs are performing versus simply holding the December futures contract and rolling annually. We’ve yet to receive a good answer to the question: why invest in an ETF when you can just roll December futures contracts annually?
Crowning Market Volatility Champs?
A while back we took note of the recent larger moves in natural gas prices, wondering whether the commodity was reclaiming the title of “widowmaker.” But yesterday, looking at cocoa up over 4% at one point, it looked like natural gas might have some competition for the title. But we had to wonder: where do the markets stack up against one another in terms of volatility?
QE Speculation v. The Markets
The market seemed to bounce back yesterday after Fed hints of a new round of quantitative easing, but how much does such speculation matter? We looked at whether increases in quantitative easing speculation was linked to changes to the movements of the stock market, and how durable those moves are.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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