Managed Futures 2012 Outlook / 2011 Review
You’ve gotten it from everywhere else- the hot shot managers, institutional titans and talking heads on CNBC have all weighed in on where they think 2012 will take investors. Now, it’s our turn in what has become our most read newsletter – the annual Attain Capital look back/peer forward – the 2012 Managed Futures Outlook […]
What to Do If You’re Making Money
While we commonly talk in this space about what to do when staring losses in the face, less time is spent here and elsewhere talking about what to do when you have had success with a program. Perhaps this is something to do with the human condition and focusing on that which causes us pain before considering that which brings us pleasure, or perhaps it is just a simple case of most investors thinking the upside is easy to manage when compared to the downside.
Whatever the case, there have been some questions from Attain clients recently asking what they should do with gains in some programs, and, specifically, what their options are for scaling up the trading of the successful programs in their portfolios. Our take on it?
Managed Futures Finish January Down -0.30%
Every month, we kick off by providing an estimate of CTA performance from the previous month, based on preliminary data from the Newedge CTA Index, Credit Suisse Dow Jones Core Managed Futures Index, and the performance of the CTAs we track here at Attain. The books are officially closed on the first month of 2012, and the performance we saw in managed futures was pretty lackluster. We are estimating managed futures as an asset class finished January down -0.30%. What, exactly, contributed to this performance?
More from the TDAmeritrade Conference in Orlando…
Dr. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania addressed attendees, with a heavy focus on the state of the bond markets worldwide in light of target inflation rates and an extension of the zero bound rate environment announced by the Fed. We’ve covered the Fed’s actions on the blog previously, but Dr. Siegel’s personification of an avid bond investor, particularly in TIPS, not only got a round of laughter from the audience, but was spot on.
Attain Capital’s Semi-Annual CTA Rankings
It’s that time of year again, when we have the data for all of the CTAs we track through the end of 2011, allowing us to try and answer the question we get on a daily basis: What’s your BEST managed futures program? That question is always a tricky one, as depending on who is asking it, they may want to know any one of several variations on who is best. Best last year? Best for all time? Best risk adjusted return? Best in terms of lowest drawdowns?
This time around, we’re mixing things up- with an exciting new ranking algorithm, and a breakdown designed to be more useful to investors attempting to gain insight into the industry.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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