The Folly of Prediction (World Cup Style)
But analyzing the past performance of a soccer team and its players isn’t “inside information,” it’s past performance. And past performance has a nasty way of being a terrible indicator of future performance, especially when you get 11 different people on each team. At the very least, that’s 22 degrees of freedom put into the mix. Add in what they ate the day before, how their feeling, whether they got in a fight with their significant other, the weather, the referee, and all of the rest; you’re talking hundreds if not thousands of moving parts. That is – as they say – why they play the game.
And Now… Some Words From Winton’s David Harding
Tonight kicks off a rigorous and what we hope to be exciting few days in Chicago with three different events; the first being the Pinnacle Awards. The hype surrounding this year’s awards is Winton’s CEO, David Harding, receiving the Pinnacle Achievement Award. We’re no stranger to writing about Harding’s success story, but we’ve never gotten […]
Asset Class Scoreboard – YTD
The old “Sell in May” theory juxtaposed against nearly every asset class seeing gains in May seems to be a perfect case in point:
Conference Time, Chicago Style
We’re a week away from Alternative Investment Managers flooding the streets of Chicago to talk shop, make connections, learn something new, and hopefully go home with a shiny award to prove how smart they are. What are we talking about? How about three conferences/awards/forums in Chicago in the same week!, with the Attain team in and around all of them if you want to say hi.
Managed Futures Asset Flows = Thanks Bridgewater
We were skeptically optimistic today when we looked at the asset flow report from Barclayhedge, which showed the best inflows for managed futures in over 8 months, gaining $1.2 billion to rank 6th of 16 hedge funds categories behind Multi-Strategy, Fixed Income, Event Driven, Distressed Securities (where are those recently?), and Emerging Markets. The ‘alleged’ inflow comes after $600 Million in March, and $8.6 Billion (2.5% of assets) over the past 12 months, according the Barclayhedge.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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