Will Trend Followers Love the Bond Bear?
The prospect of a bear market in bonds has been a regular source of excitement for us, and no one knows bonds quite like the fixed-income expert, CEO and CIO of 2100 Xenon Jay Feuerstein. We were pleased to have an opportunity to hear him today at the annual 2100 Xenon breakfast presentation at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business discussing interest rates, the potential for a bond bear market, and what it could mean for trend followers.
Winton Capital – Shrinking Risk, Shrinking AUM
We’ve pointed out from time to time that when a CTA grows bigger, its monthly gains and losses often grow smaller. CTAs don’t really come any bigger than Winton, and they’ve definitely been a prime example of this trend. Well as it turns out, not everyone is excited about the lower volatility, lower risk/return version of the Winton they once knew.
Managed Futures Finish January Up 1.46%
Finally some good news: per the Newedge CTA Index, managed futures has kicked off 2013 with a good month. We (and many others) have spent quite a bit of time over the last couple of months trying to figure out what went wrong in 2012… so what’s changed so far this year?
Are Low Interest Rates Dragging Managed Futures Down?
The debate over what has been ailing managed futures has been growing more mainstream by the day. Unfortunately, many of the arguments – like blaming low interest rates – are plausible, but don’t stand up under closer scrutiny.
The Scramble for China
China’s rise is changing the story for every part of the economy, and the trickle of opportunities for managed futures is beginning to pick up pace. Now that US and international banks are getting the green light to start trading in Chinese stock index futures, are we turning the corner on the scramble for China?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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