Expected v. Realized Returns in Managed Futures
Our weekly newsletter is up here, analyzing how expectations impact the investing experience and decission making paradigm. Confused? Think about it this way: for those who first set sight on the Mona Lisa or ate at the best restaurant in town and felt underwhelmed, asking yourself what the big deal is; or conversely have been […]
Asset Class Scorecard Through Feb 2011
With Dow Jones Credit Suisse posting their hedge fund and managed futures indices this week, we’re able to update our asset class scorecard through the end of February, although with recent activity this is likely to look much different when March’s numbers are tallied. Key: estimates as of 02/28/11 Managed Futures = Dow Jones […]
A different kind of March Madness…
After a volatile few days of trading, with commodities selling off sharply (before rallying back today), stock markets going negative on the year, and the yen rallying to the highest levels seen since World War II, we took a minute to see how the various managed futures strategies we track have done through the madness… […]
No Reason to Abandon Ship
There was the ultra-rare mention of managed futures on CNBC yesterday when they had on Susan Roberts of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management to discuss market movements in the wake of the Japan quake. (click here for the video) After explaining that we are exiting a period of historically low volatility levels, and mishandling the definition […]
About that crisis period performance for Managed Futures…
We have long trumpeted the power of managed futures to perform in a crisis (see here), but are looking at a lot of red for managed futures today… down -2% to -2.5% as an asset class by our estimate. And this is on top of monthly losses of about -1% for the Newedge CTA index […]
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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