Anatomy of a Trend Following Breakout… Crude Oil
At the risk of being one of those people who throws a bunch of lines, arrows, and squares on a chart and says… look at this…we have re-created a chart of Crude Oil over the past 20 months to highlight how a classic trend following trade looks. While there are hundreds of different ways to […]
Managed Futures up +0.85% to +1.25% in February
With the digital ink barely dry on the last trades of the month, we’re scanning the managers we follow on a daily basis – then extrapolating that onto the Newedge CTA index month to date return of +0.77% as of last Friday – to estimate that managed futures as an asset class finished February on […]
What contango unwinding looks like…
While there has been much written about Crude Oil’s spike above $100 on the back of the news out of Libya, we haven’t seen much on what the spike has meant for the entire Crude “curve”, meaning the further out contract months (Crude has open interest all the way out to the December 2019 contract) […]
Is $100 Crude Oil Good for Managed Futures?
Historically, a rapid increase in oil prices is a leading indicator of a pending world crisis. From the oil embargo of 1973, the 1982 Iraq/Iran war, Desert Storm, as well as the Economic Recession of 2008; all of these periods featured a significant increase in crude oil prices. Now with April Crude Oil futures rapidly […]
Managed Futures Week in Review for the week of February 14th
In lieu of our newsletter which did not run yesterday due to President’s day we are posting our normal week in review on the blog. Also – we are thinking of making this a permanent feature of the blog, so please feel free to give us your feedback and let us know what you think. […]
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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