About that 2014 Commodity Breakout…
Amidst all of the talk of the death of volatility, we’ll excuse you if you didn’t notice some rather bizarre behavior in farmed commodity markets in May. The poster child was Wheat, which had a trend reversal on May 6th, and didn’t look back. But it wasn’t just Wheat – similar patterns were seen in Corn, Soybean Oil, Rice, Coffee, and Cotton:
6 Unscientific Ways to Tell the Market is at the Top
It’s safe to say that many investors have lost money trying to predict the turn of a market, or vice versa; believing that the market is still a bull market as it drops 25% in a couple weeks. But instead of telling you what is, or what isn’t, we figured we’d show you some things that could potentially be warning signs, and you can decide for yourself?. So here are the “6 could be Warning Signs,” that the market is at the top.
About those Higher Interest Rates (Lower Bond Prices)
Nobody remembered to tell the bond market what it was supposed to do this year; and before you knew what was happening – the long end of the curve has rallied (prices up, rates down) with the yield on the 30 yr falling from 3.90% to 3.40% so far this year.
Gundlach: Short Housing, AAPL, Gold, and Yen
Jeff Gundlach has become something of an investment guru over the past few years; first with the not so small feat of beating out the Bond King Gross rather consistently in building up DoubleLine from scratch to a firm managing $52 Billion in assets. Now, just when things were getting boring with new all time highs in the Dow last week, he’s back at it with a call to short the housing market.
Sell in May, and Look Managed Futures Way?
Is it really that easy? Just sell in May? Does it matter if stocks have been going up leading into May, what about if they’re down? What if we’re in the 2nd year of a presidential cycle?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
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Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
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