PFGBest Update: Speeding Up
As many have already heard, there have been some new developments in the PFGBest bankruptcy proceedings. We’ll continue to follow the situation closely, but all in all, there’s really only one thing to say: it’s about time.
You Are Bad at Making Predictions
There’s a new pop-stats book making the rounds, and it’s been generating quite a bit of buzz – at least, as far as pop-stats books go. Nate Silver, who is probably best known as the author of the New York Times’ FiveThiryEight politics blog, delves into the tricky art of predictioneering in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t. It looks promising, and is certainly going to be on our reading list in the near future.
PFGBest Update: Will NFA Heads Roll?
The NFA’s failure to detect the fraud at PFGBest was inexcusable – and we’ve been waiting for someone at the NFA to be held accountable. Now there’s news that a senior auditor is headed for the door, but it hardly seems like the kind of justice we were hoping for.
Smart Money, Dumb Money, and Dumber Money
“Buy low and sell high” is about as cliché as investing clichés get, and so is the sobering reality that most investors fail spectacularly at following this axiom. Unfortunately, it’s not just a stock market phenomenon – and perhaps it would pay to apply the same logical approach more and more people are using when considering the cost of their investment to the process of considering when to enter and exit that investment.
Bucking Vacuum Mentality
Traditionally, when you read a story, the moral comes at the end – a sound bite takeaway that justifies the time spent. We’re going to try something a little different, though, and provide the moral of the story up front. See, this story has a lot of moving pieces, and it can be all too easy to focus on one point, missing the forest for the trees. So before you even get started here, remember: Nothing happens in a vacuum.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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