Coffee by the Numbers
Coffee is up big yet again today (+11% big… in a day). That’s not saying it wouldn’t drop just as quickly in the same amount of time, frustrating those on the long side, but why not take a look at this impressive move by the numbers while we can:
Natural Gas Volatility Explodes…. Again!
Natural Gas is back at it again today, pushing through its past highs by going over $6; something not seen by investors since 2009. But is this just because of the current weather conditions and forecast, or is this a more secular change in Natural Gas volatility. Are the good old days back for good? To check that out, we took a look at the historical volatility of the March 2014 futures contract versus the January 2015 contract.
The Dark Side of the Moon Asset Class Scoreboard
Maybe it’s just the die-hard Pink Floyd’s fan that we are, but we can’t help but think that January’s asset class scoreboard chart looks a little bit like the Dark Side of the Moon album cover…
Natural Gas Volatility Exploding
Well, not too long after we discussed the recent contraction in volatility across managed futures, everyone’s favorite energy as of late, Natural Gas, has done just that sort of volatility uncoiling, with the 3 day Average True Range jumping about 200% in the last week! That’s swings of about $5,600 per contract on average the past few days, levels not seen since back in the volatility hay day of 2008/2009.
Natural Gas Linkfest
While everyone else will likely be talking about the Dow’s back to back days losing about 500 points – we can help but give a little love to Natural Gas with a special Nat Gas edition of our weekend reads:
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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