Black Gold, Texas Tea, and Brent Bubbly?
The story of the last few years in oil has been the growing spread between WTI and Brent crude, and the effect that’s had on the futures markets for both. The tide seemed to be turning decisively in Brent’s favor, but if the recent trend is any indication, that may not be the case for much longer.
That’s not a Rally… THIS is a Rally
We were reminded of the old “That’s not a knife” line from Crocodile Dundee when taking a look at the Nikkei vs Dow chart put up on StockTwits today. While the move in the Dow has been impressive, those in Japan are likely saying something along the lines of “that’s not a rally” as the move in the Nikkei (black line) is approaching ludicrous speed.
Gold Forming Classic “Frowny Face” Pattern
Not to heap any more on the unfortunate gold bugs – they’ve had it bad enough lately. We just wanted to draw your attention to a chart pattern we’ve been watching as it has developed: the classic “frowny face” pattern.
Is the Yen Carry Trade Back?
The Yen has continued to plunge downward, and we’re hearing more and more about the Yen Carry Trade being back. All this talk reminded us of some of the infamous stories stemming from the last time that trade was popular. But even so, we think there’s a better way to capture moves like this.
Funny Enough, We HAVE Heard of the CME…
This week’s Economist has a rarity: an article taking a look at the CME with the tagline “the biggest financial exchange you’ve never heard of.” Well, maybe it’s because we’re in the futures business and live in Chicago – but we would venture to guess most readers of the Economist probably have heard of the CME… right?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
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Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
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