Risk On/Risk Off Market Snapshot: April 2013
After 3 consecutive months of zero “risk on” or “risk off” days (per our definition), April finally added some to the tally – with 3 risk on days and 1 risk off day making for about 18% of the trading days in the risk on/risk off category. In this case, it took a horrible tragedy in Boston to cause a sufficiently large market sell-off, which then spurred 3 subsequent “risk on” days as the market erased those losses and continued to new highs.
Wheat Tour 2013
No, it’s not the most boring concert event of the summer – this year the CME decided to do some live-tweeting of the Kansas City Board of Trade wheat tour and posted pictures and analysis along the way. It always amazes us to see this side of grain trading in action. Despite all of the […]
Asset Class Standings After New Stock Highs
With the S&P 500 breaking 1,600 for the first time ever last week and finally getting above those pesky 2007 highs, we decided to look at just how well everything else has done in comparison since all was well before the financial collapse, and see if any other asset classes are back above their 2007 (nominal) highs. Which asset class is leading the pack after 5+ years?
Asset Class Scoreboard: April 2013
The numbers for April were good for managed futures… and for every other asset class we track that isn’t named “Commodities.” Almost as impressive as the gains for real estate and stocks was the nosedive taken by the commodity index. Is it time for asset allocators to start rethinking long-only commodity exposure?
Long-Only Commodity ETFs vs Futures- April 2013
We’ve made no secret that we think Commodity ETFs are a poor choice for investors, and the underperformance of those ETFs compared to futures contracts in 2011 and 2012 bore that out. But so far, 2013 has not matched our expectations, with commodity ETFs ahead of the Dec futures performance through the end of April. We still expect them to underperform in the long run, but in the meantime, here’s how they have fared in 2013.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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