That Damned… W?
If there’s one thing that bugs trend followers, it’s the “V-shaped” recovery, when a market experiences a sudden, sharp reversal. Several markets that seemed to be on nice downtrends lately have exhibited this pattern over the last few days, while others have sported more of a W-shape. It may not seem like much, but the distinction can make a big difference.
Copper Headed for the Floor
We’ve enjoyed watching the recent selloff in copper. It’s been one of the best trades of 2013 for trend followers. Unfortunately, the party might be coming to a grinding halt soon. With copper prices nearing the cost of production, it doesn’t look like this trend has very much room left to run.
Smiling While Gold Sinks
If you’re a long-term trend follower, this is exactly the kind of move you like to see. The down trend in gold got started last year and – despite a few hiccups along the way – kept moving lower and lower over the until… well, anyone who took Goldman Sachs’ advice earlier this week to short gold is certainly smiling today.
Asset Class Scoreboard: March 2013
The data for March is in, which means we can update our asset class scoreboard to reflect the first quarter of 2013. As it turns out, March was a fantastic month for investors nearly irrespective of where investors had their money (at least, according to our proxies for the various asset classes).
Commodity “Supercycle” Not So Super
There’s a reason why we prefer managed futures – which can go long or short various commodity markets – to long-only commodity positions. In addition to our misgivings about the vehicles many investors use to gain commodity exposure, there’s another big problem: there’s no guarantee that commodity prices are going to rise.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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