Long-only Commodity ETFs v. Futures- March 2012
Here’s our monthly look at how the various Commodity ETFs are stacking up against the commodities they are supposed to track. Futures trading is complicated, presents a risk of loss, and isn’t for everyone – especially since past market performance doesn’t necessarily indicate future results – but given the numbers, we’re left scratching our heads. We’ve yet to receive a good answer to the question: why invest in an ETF when you can just roll December contracts annually?
Witches, Leprechauns, High Volume and other Mythical Concepts
Another visit to the pits today, another unique perspective. As it turns out, today is what was once known as a “witching” day- a day on which multiple contracts expired, specifically, stock options, stock index options, stock futures and stock futures options. In the past, witching days were significant because the markets were all closing at once, leading to higher volume and volatility. Today, the closes are more staggered, but even so, there’s a general expectation that one will see similar effects.
If Bill Gates Were as Tall as His Money
The move in Apple’s stock over the past few years has been nothing short of unbelievable – going from $90 at the start of ’09 to near $600 today (566% gain), and from $400 just a short two and a half months ago (50% gain). The odds of a stock doing what Apple has just done would be on the order of 1 in a million or so according to standard statistical methods.
But here’s the thing – these types of outlier moves (both up and down) happen way more frequently than once every million times, highlighting one of the often forgotten aspects of the investment world, that financial matters are not normally distributed. That is, you can’t use normal statistical measures (even when using the actual outlier data…) to make observations about what may happen moving forward.
Long-only Commodity ETFs v. Futures- February 2012
Time for our monthly look at how the long only commodity ETFs are performing versus simply holding the December futures contract and rolling annually…
Thoughts on the Nasdaq Breaking 3000
There’s something about round numbers that gets investors riled up. Witness: tons of news around today about the Nasdaq topping 3000. We hate to rain on the parade, but that’s still nearly 42% below the all time high of 5132.52 it reached on 3/10/2000.
Don’t get us wrong, the up move of 137% from the lows in 2009 through now is impressive, and reaching its highest level in 11 years is great. Unfortunately, that still leaves us with the uncomfortable fact that those 11 years were all spent in drawdown.
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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