Presidentially Prescient Market Moves
As the Republican primaries continue on, a big topic of conversation has been how individual presidents would impact the economy. Ritholtz has always done a pretty good job at digitally shaking his head at these kinds of conversations. That being said, his dismissing of the President’s impact on market movement is typically looked at from a 20,000 foot perspective. What about the immediate aftermath?
Market Dynamics and CTA Performance – February 2012 Update
When CTAs evaluate the markets, they’re looking for different things, depending on their strategy. That being said, especially in the trend following space, managers will often select markets in order to diversify their program and hedge against all of their positions losing money in one fell swoop. Of course, futures trading is complex, and there is always a risk of loss, but these market selection tactics help CTAs better manage risk within a program.
2011 made that difficult, as we outlined in our 2012 outlook. After seeing higher than usual market correlations and a major surge in risk on/risk off trading, CTAs were hoping that 2012 would give them a trading atmosphere better suited for market diversification. How’s that working out?
Week in Review
We usually include our take on the previous week in our regular newsletter, but due to the President’s Day holiday, our next newsletter won’t come out until next week. So instead, we’re sharing our summary of last week’s markets, trading systems, and CTAs right here. Enjoy!
Nasdaq 10,000
It has been a truly amazing start to 2012 in the stock market. Exhibit A? The Nasdaq, which has taken on the 45 degree up angle chart pattern more typically seen in a curve fit hypothetical track record than in an actual stock market.
Long-only Commodity ETFs v. Futures- January 2012
Every month, we compare how long-only commodity ETFs perform in comparison to simply trading the related futures contract and rolling it annually. This month, there were some interesting results. How interesting?
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
The owner of this blog, RCM Alternatives, may receive various forms of compensation from certain investment managers highlighted and/or mentioned within the blog, including but not limited to retaining: a portion of trade commissions, a portion of the fees charged to investors by the investment managers, a portion of the fees for operating a fund for the investment managers via affiliate Attain Portfolio Advisors, or via direct payment for marketing services.
Managed Futures Disclaimer:
Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
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