When CTAs evaluate the markets, they’re looking for different things, depending on their strategy. That being said, especially in the trend following space, managers will often select markets in order to diversify their program and hedge against all of their positions losing money in one fell swoop. Of course, futures trading is complex, and there is always a risk of loss, but these market selection tactics help CTAs better manage risk within a program.
2011 made that difficult, as we outlined in our 2012 outlook. After seeing higher than usual market correlations and a major surge in risk on/risk off trading, CTAs were hoping that 2012 would give them a trading atmosphere better suited for market diversification. How’s that working out?
Let’s first take a look at the 2011 managed futures performance scapegoat – the risk on/risk off trading environment. We broke down the risk on/risk off trade earlier this year, when we looked for the average daily move of the “risk on” market grouping between 2000 and 2011 and defined a day as “risk on” when the average gain across all of those markets was over 1%. While 1% may seem somewhat small to be a full bore “risk on” day, that is the average across all those markets, and we found it to be best aligned with the reporting of risk on/risk off days in both the mainstream media and our own commentary. A “risk off” day was the inverse – a day where the risk on market grouping was down over 1%. Using these metrics, 2012 looks far more normal than 2011 did.
| Year | “Risk On Days” | “Risk Off Days” | “Normal” |
| 2011 | 10% | 11% | 79% |
| 2012 | 9% | 6% | 85% |
While that’s definitely what we like to see, what about market correlations? As a refresher, correlation is a statistical figure with values which range between -1.00 and +1.00, meant to show how inter-related two sets of data are (in the case of investments, we are usually looking at the monthly percentage returns). If they have a correlation of 1.00, they are perfectly correlated, meaning when one market rises 3%, the other will do the exact same, and when one loses -2%, so will the other. If they are at -1.00, they are exactly opposite; with one making the exact opposite amount the other loses each month, and vice versa. In 2011, these relationships were much stronger than they usually are:
And 2012? Unfortunately, it seems as though market correlation levels from 2011 are persisting in the new year, though there are a handful of exceptions:
In other words, while the risk on/risk off trade may be subsiding, the markets are still seeing higher correlation levels than what many managers may prefer. But which matters more? Year to date, managed futures, according to the Newedge CTA index* today, is up .91% (Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Whether that’s a matter of risk on/risk off trading falling to the wayside or individual trades making it happen for managers in the index, only time will tell. In the meantime, we’ll be keeping an eye on market trends and how they’re impacting CTA performance. Stay tuned.
Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.
Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings
The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.
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