Dollar Up, Commodities Up?
While one day does not make a trend – it was interesting to note the interesting pattern today of Gold (and other commodities such as Coffee, Cotton, Corn, Sugar, Wheat) rallying in the face of a rally in the US Dollar. The reasoning is that Euro Zone debt problems are surfacing again…. Greeks Credit Default […]
Expanding Commodity Volatility = Good or Bad?
It has been an interesting past two days in commodity markets, with some sharp moves up/then down, before settling in a little today…. with Silver moving nearly 10% in a session and a half, Cotton falling from its highs, and grain markets moving: (Sugar has dropped about -7% in the hour or so since we […]
CTAs Keeping a Close Eye on Margin Requirements
Could part of the recent sell off (excluding yesterday) in commodity markets be related to increases in margin requirements? We have seen a very volatile month of trading across commodity exchanges around the world, and exchanges have responded by aggressively raising margins. Some might say they are trying to curb speculation…. but exchanges like ICE […]
US Dollar/Commodity Divergence
Interesting to see the US Dollar up about 0.75% today, and commodities NOT following that move with a huge sell off. Palladium, Silver, and Crude are all up around +2% today in spite of the dollar rally, while Cotton is up more than +5%. While this divergence may be too little to late for managed […]
Forget Crude and Silver… what about Cotton?
With all the talk about the super rally in Crude Oil on the back of the unrest in the Middle East, and the Silver rally on the back of rumors of physical Silver for delivery being gobbled up at a breakneck pace (zerohedge)– the moves in those markets pale in comparison to what we’ve seen in Cotton over the past weeks and year to date…
Disclaimers
Managed futures, commodity trading, forex trading, and other alternative investments are complex and carry a risk of substantial losses. As such, they are not suitable for all investors. You should not rely on any of the information as a substitute for the exercise of your own skill and judgment in making such a decision on the appropriateness of such investments.
The entries on this blog are intended to further subscribers understanding, education, and – at times – enjoyment of the world of alternative investments. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author.
The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. Newedge CTA Index, S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
The performance data for various Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”) and Commodity Pools are compiled from various sources, including Barclay Hedge, RCM’s own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor’s disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor’s track record.
The mention of general asset class performance (i.e. managed futures did well, stocks were down, bonds were up) is based on RCM’s direct experience in those asset classes, estimates of performance of dozens of CTAs followed by RCM, and averaging of various indices designed to track said asset classes.
The mention of market based performance (i.e. Corn was up 5% today) reflects all available information as of the time and date of the publication.
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Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results. The regulations of the CFTC require that prospective clients of a managed futures program (CTA) receive a disclosure document when they are solicited to enter into an agreement whereby the CTA will direct or guide the client’s commodity interest trading and that certain risk factors be highlighted. The disclosure document contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA.
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