February 25, 2013
Attain Capital
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We had to double-check our calendars a few times today to make sure we hadn’t somehow traveled back to the summer of 2012. Back then markets were riding the risk on/risk off roller coaster thanks to fears that Greece’s elections would deal a catastrophic blow to Brussels’ efforts to hold the Eurozone together. Less than a year later, and we find ourselves watching the recent relative calm in the markets turned on its head thanks to the same fears – but this time, it’s thanks to Italy’s election.
As a quick recap: after former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (of bunga-bunga infamy) was essentially forced out of office last fall, the technocratic (and unelected) government of Mario Monti arrived. After few months spent implementing “Brussels consensus” policies to stabilize Italy’s (and by extension, the EU’s) debt crisis, Monti was extremely unpopular with a huge swath of the Italian public.
As a result, this weekend’s election had 3 major players: the center-left party of Peir Luigi Bersani; the center-right party of Berlusconi; and the populist anti-elite movement created by the comedian Beppe Grillo. Most of the world was hoping for a Bersani victory, which would essentially signal a continuation of Monti’s reforms. The morning’s news suggested a big win for Bersani, but that optimism was shattered once the vote counts started rolling in, and it quickly became apparent that Italy was probably headed towards an ungovernable gridlock.
And the ripples throughout the markets were enormous. The early morning rally collapsed into the biggest single-day loss of the year for US equities:
Chart courtesy Finviz.com. Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
We witnessed a huge spike in the VIX while setting a new one-day volume record for VIX futures contracts:
Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The stalwart of safe-haven currencies – the Yen – saw a huge spike before settling back down somewhat:
Chart courtesy Finviz.com. Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
We could go on (and on and on). The point is, Europe came roaring back into relevance thanks to Italy’s election results, and with it reminded us of those risk on/risk off news driven markets which per our recollection were disliked by nearly all market participants.
It will be a few weeks before we know whether Italy will be able to form a government, and if so, what that government will look like. But we don’t really care if they do or not. What we’re looking at is what this may do to the markets managed futures track. If this brings back the news-driven highly correlated market moves, that could spell trouble. If it is the start of a more substantial crisis, well – managed typically love a crisis and the outlier moves they bring.
Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.
Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings
The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.
Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings
The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.