RAID for the Gold Bugs

A broken clock is right twice a day – and for the True Believers in gold, that clock stayed broken from 2001 through mid-2011. Their favorite commodity was on a historic upswing, and their fervent devotion to the gold investment thesis was rewarded with a 250% gain from 2001 to 2011 as gold climbed from around $550 to (briefly) more than $1900 (Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

We hope for their sake they sold some of that gold when times were good (does a true gold bug ever sell gold?). Since the peak in 2011, gold has fallen nearly -28%. But incredibly, some gold investors have done even worse. One of the most prominent advocates of the yellow metal, John Paulson, has really taken a beating. His Gold Fund is down -54% so far this year after losing -25% in 2012; together, that’s more than a -65% decline. But he’s still hanging on and urging investors to stick with him. He claims there’s still “significant upside” to be had in the gold market.

He had better hope so. Remember, after a -65% decline, it takes a 190% rally just to get back to the high water mark. He has a ways to go. Fortunately, his unwavering confidence in the strength of gold as an investment means that he sees just about anything as a reason for gold prices to rise:

Paulson has been a gold bug for years, arguing that inflation will soar when the Federal Reserve begins to cut back on its quantitative easing program. But the precious metal last month entered bear-market territory for the first time in a dozen years as the Fed’s bond-buying continues unabated.

Wait, inflation is going to soar after the Fed cuts back on QE? Just a few years ago he was saying QE was going to cause double-digit inflation by 2012 – now the inflation is just waiting for QE to end? We’re scratching our heads on that one.

Just file this one away as another reason to be wary of long-only commodity investments.

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Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.

Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.