Do we still need to do this? A Trend Following Rebuttal

We’ve been known to help straighten out some wayward journalists from time to time, and our friend Michael Covel pointed out just such a journalist in need of some help last night via twitter:

Now, Michael could be accused of drinking the trend following Kool-Aid a little too much at times, but there’s worse things to be passionate about, that’s for sure. And we don’t think Noah Smith is actually attacking ‘trend following’, despite the article’s headline and conclusion that “the trend is your friend till the bend at the end.”

Mr. Smith appears to be warning investors from taking on hidden risks in exchange for consistent gains, and cautioning against chasing performance. Mr. Smith appears to be telling investors in his ‘Investing’ column on Bloomberg View – to steer clear of the selling deep out of the money options. He is teaching us not to fall for the put-option fallacy, where investors get lulled into a false sense of security right before things blow up. He trots out examples of this fallacy in the mortgage backed securities bust in 2007, hedge funds in the 1990s and early 2000s, and Japanese workers (??).

The rub for Covel and ourselves is… He is warning against selling volatility. He is warning against booking small, consistent gains in return for the possibility of large future losses. But he conflates those warnings with “Trend Following,” seemingly not aware that Trend Following does the reverse. Trend Following is a LONG volatility strategy, which books small, frequent losses in exchange for the possibility of large future gains. It is quite literally the exact opposite of what is described in Noah Smith’s article.

The proof is in the past three years. The proof is in 2007 and 2008.  If trend following were falling for the put-option fallacy – the returns would be a LOT better the past three years, but it’s been a skinny few years for trend following. See here, here, or here. Those selling volatility (ignoring the big risks of the past) are the ones making money, as can be seen in the short VIX ETF (XIV) or plain old $SPY.  And what about 2008?  What about when the hidden risks came flying to the forefront?  How do you explain Trend Following’s outperformance during that time, Noah?

We suggest taking a short trip through a few blog posts and our educational materials on Trend Following, and maybe reading one or two of Covel’s excellent books on the subject, maybe rewriting the article.

—    ‘Trend Following’ whitepaper

—   Here’s a Guy Managing $25 Billion with Trend Following

—    100 years of Trend Following

—    Covel’s Books:

o  Trend Commandments

o  The Little Book of Trading

o  Trend Following

o  The Complete TurtleTrader

—    Our series on how a trend following trade works:

Anatomy of a Trend Following Breakout – Crude Oil

Crude Trends and Cursing your Manager 

Anatomy of a Trend Following Trade – the Short Side

Anatomy of a Trend Following Trade – the Short Exit

Anatomy of a Trend Following Trade – the Journey

Until then, on behalf of all the trend followers out there, we’ll echo Michael Covel’s sentiment.

“Please get a clue.” 

 

Write a Comment

Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.

Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.