We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again… We’re not in the business of predicting where markets will go, or what Manged Futures performance will be like in 2015. However, that’s not to say there aren’t lessons to be learned and knowledge to be gleaned in looking back over the past year, analyzing market conditions, volatility, and other factors, and then discussing the outlook for those factors in the new year and beyond.
Our 2014 review starts in the obvious place, rehashing Managed Futures comeback year, where it posted its best performance since 2008. But we quickly find it wasn’t a “textbook” volatility expansion / stock market crisis period environment that gave Managed Futures its boost. In fact, 64% of futures markets actually experienced a decrease in market volatility, per our measure of the average true range.
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
How did they perform so well, when the ranges of many markets declined? We dig into that question and analyze the much different volatility expansion in the second half of the year, as well as analysis of the US Dollar move and how beneficial that was to Managed Futures; before switching our gaze to the year ahead.
Should people expect a repeat? What markets might see volatility expand or contract this time around? What is going to happen to the energy and US Dollar trends that are still pushing through into 2015? Download our Managed Futures 2014 Review & 2015 Outlook for our full analysis on the asset class.
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.