The Tale of Trendsgiving

It’s beginning to look a lot like … Christmas.  Wait, we haven’t even had Thanksgiving yet, what’s with these people putting up holiday decorations in mid-Nov??

Let’s give Thanksgiving a little love. We can see next week’s feast now, sweet buttery rolls, homemade mashed potatoes, fresh-baked pumpkin pie, a honey-glazed turkey hot out of the oven — the smell of pure bliss.  But as you put on those joggers and prepare to gorge, some of us may be cursing the prices of this year’s festive feast.  At 10% to 15% more expensive than last year, you may want to this bit of reading material for the post-meal pit stop: the 21-link inflation field guide.

Curiously, there are some who will be giving thanks this week because of those high prices. Not the supermarkets, nor the processors, nor the shippers.  No, those who will be giving thanks may just be calling it “Trendsgiving”.  Here was @taylorpearsonme from his October Trend Strategy write up following back to back months of 5%+ performance [past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results]:

While economists argue over whether it is “transitory” inflation, many commodity markets are busy pushing 30% to 130% higher on the year, in rather classic up trends. It won’t always be like this but the trend strategy will enjoy it while it does.

So, what do you need to know to talk intelligently at the dinner table when asked what sort of asset class/strategy does well during inflation. Here’s some trend following stuffing for your brain:

Trend following in its purest form is the process of recognizing and trading along with an up or down “trend” in a market. For example, buying and holding Oil during a 12-month move in Oil prices from $40/bl to $80/bl. Here’s what that looks like on an actual trend following model, via, going long December 2, 2020 at around $41 and still holding long as we’re near $80.

Now, you could grow old and gray waiting for a nice trend like this in any one market, so trend followers tend to cover many, many markets across geographies and sectors, like this from MutinyFunds:

So, trend followers trade markets across the globe, patiently waiting for a trend (up or down) or two to emerge in markets as diverse as Cocoa, Aussie Bonds, Natural Gas, Copper, and Soybeans.

This allows them to be able to capture inflationary moves that may happen outside of energies or metals, as well as worldwide, multi-market commodity super cycles if and when they appear.  And because they don’t just look for up trends, but also down trends, trend following can offer positive performance in bear markets, especially if they are accompanied by a flight to safety in bonds.

So, why trend following??  Because:

  • Inflation hedge
  • Bear market protection
  • Tactical commodity exposure
  • Liquid and transparent


As part of trendsgiving, we are happy to announce a refresh and update to our “Trend Following” whitepaper expanding on the above. Here’s what you can expect:

  • How Breakout and Relative Price Trend Models Work
  • Overview of Performance when stocks are down and up
  • How Trend Following Allows for best-in-class Transparency and liquidity
  • Anatomy of a trend following Trade
  • Highlights and due diligence on the best trend followers in the biz


Now, we know you’re waiting with anticipation to download the whitepaper. However, it won’t be available for a couple of weeks, but what we can give is an exclusive sneak peek — get to know the Managers being highlighted in the new paper before it’s released:

Listen To Trend Following Turtle Tails (and Tales) with Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital

It’s legend time. We’re hearing straight from the mouth of well-known Turtle Trader – Jerry Parker – on this episode of The Derivative we talk all things trend following. Becoming a leading voice in the alternatives investment and trend following space – Jerry has turned his Turtle Trader experience into a trend following career, check it out below:


Read how John Krautsack of EMC Capital Advisors got started in the industry…

“Back in the mid 80’s an old friend asked me if I wanted to go down to the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange where his brother-in-law worked. I’ll be honest, I was 21 and had absolutely no idea what went on at the CME. It turns out his brother-in-law (trading badge MAX) was one of the biggest local traders in the S&P 500 pit. We gained access to the floor and waited for him to exit the pit. Standing there for ten minutes I couldn’t believe the total chaos surrounding me. MAX finally came out of the pit looking like he was just in a fight. The three of us headed up to the Merc Club for lunch and for the first few minutes MAX just stared at his trading cards then back up at the quotes on the ticker board. During lunch we had a short conversation and then MAX said he had to get back to the pit but before he departed he looked across the table and said “John do you want to work for me?” I said yes and never looked back.”


Watch The NON-Wisdom of Crowds with Nigol Koulajian of Quest Partners

Nigol is a well-known CTA, expert researcher, meditation and yoga practitioner, and Founder & CIO of $1.8 Billion in AUM = Quest Partners. Today’s guest is none other than Nigol Koulajian, he’s been in the business since the early 1990’s and has grown to become one of the leading voices in alternative investments.

And Now, a little Turtle Soup for your Trendsgiving…

Turtles?  What? It all started back in the 1980s, when two renowned traders – Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt – had a nature vs. nurture disagreement: were you born with the ability to trade, or is it something that can be taught. To test this theory, the two made the bet of the century.

The pair placed an innocent ad in the Wall Street Journal offering an opportunity that seemed too good to be true. Dennis would teach a select few his proprietary trading method and provide them with capital to trade. A famed trader spilling his secrets was astonishing enough, but in another unusual twist, the ad noted the pair’s willingness to take applications from anyone, including those with no prior experience in trading. The applicants that were chosen were eventually dubbed… the Turtle Traders.

Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital Corporation and the late Liz Cheval of EMC Capital Advisors were two chosen turtle traders. You can learn more about turtle traders here.

From all of us at RCM Alternatives, we wish you a Happy Trendsgiving and hope you have a wonderful day celebrating all there is to be thankful for.

The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings

The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.