Lest the title gave you the wrong impression, no, we’re not about to call a top in the US bond market. But all of the failed predictions seeking to do just that remind us of why we prefer the managed futures approach: buy bonds and keep with the rally when prices breakout higher, waiting for the day that one of the predictions finally proves true.
Category: Markets
27
Sep
2012
26
Sep
2012
The Impending Pig Paucity
We’ve watched all summer as the drought has sent grain prices skyward, and even setting some new records for those markets. Inevitably, those higher grain prices are now sending shockwaves throughout related markets – leading to quite a bit of hand-wringing recently over the bacon supply. But just how much are the markets expecting hog prices to rise?
24
Sep
2012
Gold vs. Stocks: Battle Royale
A recent piece comparing stocks to gold during the recovery caught our eye. Its argument is pretty simple: even with the incredible rally in the stock market, you would have been better off in gold. It’s a strong claim, but a closer looks reveals the importance of timing – whether one is looking forward or back.
19
Sep
2012
Platinum Goes Cliff Diving
Yesterday the news broke that striking miners in South Africa would be returning to work. Supply concerns had been driving the metal higher for weeks, but yesterday’s platinum futures chart shows what can happen when news like this suddenly breaks.
18
Sep
2012
Crude Projections
Violence is erupting all over the Middle East. The U.S. government said that it will not make a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So why isn’t Crude skyward bound? If you ask some, it may high-frequency trading (HFT) hijinx crossing over into the realm of commodities.
17
Sep
2012
The Future of Natural Gas
Natural gas has bounced back from the lows we witnessed earlier in the year, but it remains a shadow of its former volatile self. Ample supply and limited distribution opportunities are still keeping prices low, but a new plan on the horizon could change that: the looming decision from the U.S. Department of Energy on whether or not we can export our supply in the near future.
13
Sep
2012
Buy the Rumor, Buy the Fact?
The decision to move ahead with QE3 was no surprise to many, yet stocks still bounced higher on the news. What ever happened to the old market cliché, buy the rumor, and sell the fact? It looks like the new paradigm is buy the rumor, and buy the fact.
12
Sep
2012
When Gas Goes Wild
Oil futures may be flat today, but if you find yourself at the wrong gas station in the northeast, you might be paying more than double the national average. What’s going on? Just another reminder that there’s a lot more to gas prices than just the cost of oil.
04
Sep
2012
Risk on/Risk Off Market Snapshot- August 2012
Part of staying diversified is trading in markets that are non-correlated; this can help reduce risk and volatility. Unfortunately, when the markets move up or down in unison, achieving diversification is much more difficult, and that’s why we’ve started keeping an eye on two statistics that illustrate how easy or difficult it has been to stay diversified in the futures markets: the risk on/risk off trade, and the market correlations.
31
Aug
2012
Long-only Commodity ETFs vs. Futures- August 2012
It’s time for our monthly look at how the long-only commodity ETFs are performing versus simply holding the December futures contract and rolling annually. And we’ve yet to receive a good answer to the question: why invest in an ETF when you can just roll December futures contracts annually?
