Is one of the reasons you see magazines going out of print these days because they don’t seem up to modern standards for timeliness? Take Futures Magazine’s recent “Top Traders of 2012” article highlighting some of the Top managed futures programs of last year. It was released on March 1st, fully two months after the end of last year. We understand it takes a while to get final 2012 numbers in, interview the traders, and put a compelling piece together… but still – how many articles were you reading this week about top anything in 2012?
Having said that, we’ll give them a pass this time – because they happened to highlight two of our recommended programs in their Top Traders of 2012 list: Clarke Capital Management and Briarwood Capital. Huzzah! You can see the write ups done by Futures Magazine below:
Now, one bit of caution here. Just like the Sports Illustrated and Madden Football cover curses, we have anecdotally noticed a bit of a Futures Magazine curse over the years for managers who show up in this list of “Top Traders.” Sometimes the managers highlighted had been lucky in achieving the performance which landed them there, but more often than not it was just a simple reversion to the mean which caused performance in the year following the selection as a top trader. No doubt this reversion to the mean is also responsible for the perceived sports cover “curses,” with someone who just had a career year more likely to revert to their average performance prior to that than take it to the next level.
Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1135567-the-madden-curse-examining-the-last-10-players-to-make-the-cover/page/3. Vick broke his leg less than 24 hours after the game was released.
We have yet to go back through all the Top Trader lists in Futures Magazine’s history and do a proper test, but we’ll get around to it one day and are sure to share the results right here. In the meantime, we’ll congratulate Clarke and Briarwood – two programs actively invested in by clients of Attain – and wish them the best of success in avoiding the curse (hey, it never slowed down Michael Jordan with his record 50 Sports Illustrated covers).
Note: the other two highlighted programs were LJM and White Indian, two option trading programs which have been on our watch list for some time but yet to make it onto our recommended list.
The myth of a Futures Magazine curse similar to the Sports Illustrated curse has been bandied about for some time and there is simply nothing to it and I would encourage you to “get around” to looking at the performance of those selected.
While some managers followed-up strong years with drawdowns like in 2008 this is not a curse and with the 2008 example, managers dropping roughly 20% after a 100% plus performance is a pretty strong two-year track record and actually supportive given the environment of those years.
Clarke, for example, was profiled all the way back in 2002 as a Top Trader and has produced solid returns for many years, before and after that.
On several occasions, one of our Top Trader profiled was a manager who had previously been selected as one of our Hot New CTAs. It is always satisying to see a CTA who I had selected as a top emerging manager actually emerge to where I could profile that manager as a Top Trader. That has happened numerous times.
The notion of a curse has come up so often that I have contemplated creating an index of them. WHile researching Top Traders for the March 2012 issue (2011 Top Traders) I noticed so many past profiles that we put out the following table. https://www.futuresmag.com/2012/02/27/2011-top-traders-have-familiar-ring
This was done in part to try and dispel the whole curse myth.
One of the things Futures has always done in selecting Top Traders and profiles in general is to look beyond that year’s performance to see if the managers’ performance is more than just luck or the result of a highly leveraged program. We weed those people out. We look at risk adjusted return.
While I am sure some mangers selected have had bad years following the feature and some may even have blown up, I am sure the majority have proven to be top performers over many years.
I know this to be the case because I selected them over the last 13 years and have features several more than once and follow-up on their performance.
Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.
Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings
The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
The programs listed here are a sub-set of the full list of programs able to be accessed by subscribing to the database and reflect programs we currently work with and/or are more familiar with.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history. Individuals cannot invest in the index itself, and actual rates of return may be significantly different and more volatile than those of the index.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.
Limitations on RCM Quintile + Star Rankings
The Quintile Rankings and RCM Star Rankings shown here are provided for informational purposes only. RCM does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The ranking methodology is proprietary and the results have not been audited or verified by an independent third party. Some CTAs may employ trading programs or strategies that are riskier than others. CTAs may manage customer accounts differently than their model results shown or make different trades in actual customer accounts versus their own accounts. Different CTAs are subject to different market conditions and risks that can significantly impact actual results. RCM and its affiliates receive compensation from some of the rated CTAs. Investors should perform their own due diligence before investing with any CTA. This ranking information should not be the sole basis for any investment decision.
See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.
March 14, 2013
No curse.
The myth of a Futures Magazine curse similar to the Sports Illustrated curse has been bandied about for some time and there is simply nothing to it and I would encourage you to “get around” to looking at the performance of those selected.
While some managers followed-up strong years with drawdowns like in 2008 this is not a curse and with the 2008 example, managers dropping roughly 20% after a 100% plus performance is a pretty strong two-year track record and actually supportive given the environment of those years.
Clarke, for example, was profiled all the way back in 2002 as a Top Trader and has produced solid returns for many years, before and after that.
On several occasions, one of our Top Trader profiled was a manager who had previously been selected as one of our Hot New CTAs. It is always satisying to see a CTA who I had selected as a top emerging manager actually emerge to where I could profile that manager as a Top Trader. That has happened numerous times.
The notion of a curse has come up so often that I have contemplated creating an index of them. WHile researching Top Traders for the March 2012 issue (2011 Top Traders) I noticed so many past profiles that we put out the following table.
https://www.futuresmag.com/2012/02/27/2011-top-traders-have-familiar-ring
This was done in part to try and dispel the whole curse myth.
One of the things Futures has always done in selecting Top Traders and profiles in general is to look beyond that year’s performance to see if the managers’ performance is more than just luck or the result of a highly leveraged program. We weed those people out. We look at risk adjusted return.
While I am sure some mangers selected have had bad years following the feature and some may even have blown up, I am sure the majority have proven to be top performers over many years.
I know this to be the case because I selected them over the last 13 years and have features several more than once and follow-up on their performance.
So please help confirm this.