With a scant few hours until the ball drops in Times Square – the quote machines have gone silent, meaning we can wrap a nice bow on 2013 market performance and see where the chips fell. All those who had the 3x Long Nikkei, 3x Short Corn trade on in 2013 raise your hands, you’re on your way to induction in the trading hall of fame (or running the next hot ETF). Per our preferred quote site, Finviz.com, we find the following 2013 performance stats for futures markets
[Please note – Finviz does some weird things around contract rolls, which can make their percentage gains over longer periods different than what would be found using a continuous contract or the cash/spot market, nonetheless, we feel it is representative of each market’s 2013 movements]:
Chart Courtesy: Finviz.com
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Some of the highlights as we see them:
- It was a roughly 50/50 split between up and down markets this year (20 of 39 [51%] up), compared with 80% in 2012, 40% in 2011 and 85% in 2010
- The top 5 spots were all held by stock index futures, with the DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq, and Nikkei all posting over 26% gains.
- Corn was slaughtered, down nearly -40% to capture the worst performer title
- Supposed safe havens Gold and Silver were both down more than 28%, finishing the year near 3 year lows
- Only 3 non stock index markets were up more than 15% (Orange Juice, Cocoa, and Natural Gas)
- 8 markets were down more than -15% (Sugar, Yen, Soy Oil, Wheat, Coffee, Gold, Silver, and Corn)
- Gold, Silver, Platinum, Corn, Soy Oil, Wheat, Yen, 30yr Bonds, 10yr Notes, and the Canadian and Aussie Dollars all finished the year near their lows
- Stock Indices, Cattle, Euro, Swiss, and British Pound finished the year near their highs
- For all the Taper, QE, money printing, rising interest rates, etc. talk, the US Dollar was essentially flat for the year
What will 2014 bring? A crash in the US Dollar as the US fails to get its financial house in order? A sharp rebound in grain prices? Another losing year for gold? The much expected sell off in US treasuries? None of the above?
Luckily, managed futures investors don’t need to know the answers to those questions in order to have a successful 2014. The managers don’t even need to know the answers, they just need to be able to identify and capture any such moves when they happen (no small task, to be sure; as we’ve seen in recent years….but more than a few will be up to the task).
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.
Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.
Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.
Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.
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