The 2014 Commy Awards

There’s the Emmy Awards, the Webby’s, the ESPY’s, (why do they all end in y’s), but no commodity awards as far as we know… Let’s see if we can’t do something about that, with the first (and perhaps last) edition of the Commy Awards:

(All Charts Courtesy: Finviz)

The ‘you probably didn’t benefit one bit from this’ market of the year = Coffee

In February, the coffee market shot up and never looked back, up around 48% on the year. However, unless you play with coffee ETF $JO, or are invested in a smaller niche managed futures manager – there’s no way you caught this move. It’s a shame too, because it was one heck of a move, and it all happened in first 2 months.

Coffee(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The Most likely to get your Houston Neighbor’s Grand Piano repossessed = Crude Oil

No one saw the crude implosion coming. Well maybe not nobody… but crude dropping almost  50% in 4 months was something trend followers sure enjoyed, even while the Russian government (and Ruble) did not. At 8.9 million barrels per day produced in US – that’s $411.7 million not there anymore… that’s a lot of pianos.

Crude(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The most popular, for no apparent reason = Gold

No matter how much the gold market moves, it’s the commodity market people love to write about, and people love to read about. Even though it finished the year basically unchanged, down -0.4% – there were reams and reams of digital ink written about its demise, its comeback, its luster, and its non-performance? And all for what? So that they can say they were wrong last time, and might be right this next time?  Honorable mention goes to the rest of the metals crowd, which actually fell quite a bit more than Gold.

Gold(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The S&P..who?  Award = Cattle

The S&P 500 wasn’t the the only market hitting new all time highs throughout 2014, so was Cattle. The problem? Not too many noticed or wrote about it, and it doesn’t count if it was an article about higher beef prices at the grocery store.

Live Cattle(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The Market most likely to make you look like an Idiot (Again) = US Bonds

Earning its 5th straight award in this category is the Bond market. 2014 was supposed to be the year for higher Interest Rates and Lower Bond prices, except it wasn’t. The US Bond Aggregate Index ETF ($AGG)  ended the year up 5.50% for the yr and rates dropped from  3.9 to 2.7, while everyone and their sister thought higher rates in store in ‘14 Bonds. You think yields will continue to drop or has it finally reached its lowest point? Are you willing to say it will go the other way? How about asking the people that made the same decision last year.

30 Yr Bond(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The Most (un)Likely to Succeed / Best Closer = US Dollar

It had its best quarter in 4 years, while other currencies fell flat. But it wasn’t just what it did, it was how it did it – closing fast. For the first six months, the USD didn’t move, while the last 6 months resulted with an up move of 13%.

USD(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The Most Likely Cause of your Acid Reflux = Corn

It’s hard to trade a market that has three consistent trend reversals in one year. From January to May it was up about 20%, then fell around 36% over the next 5 months, and rebounded 24% to close out the year. You must have a strong stomach to dabble in this market (honorable mention = Nat Gas)

Corn(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

The Jennifer Aniston = U.S. Stock Indices

This year saw US stocks pile onto the already outstanding run the stock market has been on over the past 5 years, so while the stock market run may be getting a bit older… it’s still looking good, just like Jennifer Aniston.

US STocks(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)

2 comments

  1. We see a huge move up in natural gas futures above 5.25 to 9. LNG demand is strong . Injection number good or bad will ignite natural gas higher . It will help raise oil to 62. It will be like coffee of prior year historic move up . Huge short squeeze up in natural gas futures. Goldman call on oil at 12 am is buy alert huge short squeeze up in oil . Natural will go up stinger and help raise oil. We deal with LNG butters demand strong . Power plants run on natural in thus country . China has infastructure in placeLNG gas stations . We see a huge move up in natural gas

  2. Natural gas futures monster squeeze up Incan be a dollar up in a day

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Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.

Disclaimer
The performance data displayed herein is compiled from various sources, including BarclayHedge, RCM's own estimates of performance based on account managed by advisors on its books, and reports directly from the advisors. These performance figures should not be relied on independent of the individual advisor's disclosure document, which has important information regarding the method of calculation used, whether or not the performance includes proprietary results, and other important footnotes on the advisor's track record.

Benchmark index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.

Managed futures accounts can subject to substantial charges for management and advisory fees. The numbers within this website include all such fees, but it may be necessary for those accounts that are subject to these charges to make substantial trading profits in the future to avoid depletion or exhaustion of their assets.

Investors interested in investing with a managed futures program (excepting those programs which are offered exclusively to qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7) will be required to receive and sign off on a disclosure document in compliance with certain CFT rules The disclosure documents contains a complete description of the principal risk factors and each fee to be charged to your account by the CTA, as well as the composite performance of accounts under the CTA's management over at least the most recent five years. Investor interested in investing in any of the programs on this website are urged to carefully read these disclosure documents, including, but not limited to the performance information, before investing in any such programs.

Those investors who are qualified eligible persons as that term is defined by CFTC regulation 4.7 and interested in investing in a program exempt from having to provide a disclosure document and considered by the regulations to be sophisticated enough to understand the risks and be able to interpret the accuracy and completeness of any performance information on their own.

RCM receives a portion of the commodity brokerage commissions you pay in connection with your futures trading and/or a portion of the interest income (if any) earned on an account's assets. The listed manager may also pay RCM a portion of the fees they receive from accounts introduced to them by RCM.

See the full terms of use and risk disclaimer here.