The CME has been the primary exchange for a variety of futures contracts – including energies. But recent market shifts – along with a big merger on the horizon – are positioning ICE as a major competitor for these markets. From what we’ve seen so far, this is likely only the beginning of a growing battler for a bigger share of the world’s futures markets.
Category: Macro Commentary
13
Feb
2013
11
Feb
2013
Too Big to Succeed?
The financial crisis, and the idea of “too big to fail” prompted some to argue that any institution too big to allow it to go bankrupt should be too big to exist. The moment passed, all we got was Dodd-Frank, and in the end the banks remain as big as ever. But could a differnt argument could prove more effective: that the big banks are too big to succeed?
08
Feb
2013
The Heat is On
Although it’s not discussed as often as gasoline, heating oil is found in quite a few multi-market portfolios we come across. It’s a bit of an unusual commodity due to the geographic concentration of its demand in the Northeast – and that means the looming Nor’easter headed for the region could have a big impact.
07
Feb
2013
Credit Rating Accountability
The big 3 credit ratings agencies have come under some pressure of late, and the news that the Department of Justice has filed charges against S&P over its ratings of mortgage-backed securities has sent some corners of the market into a frenzy. There are quite a few twists and turns to this story, but it could very well wind up being one of the most significant developments to come out of the financial crisis.
06
Feb
2013
This is Not the Bubble You’re Looking For
As long as we’ve been watching for a sustained downtrend in bonds, the current slide from mid-November’s peak has definitely started to get our hopes up. But is this the bursting of the bond bubble? Not everyone is convinced that it is.
06
Feb
2013
PFGBest Update: What’s at Stake in the FX and Metals Case
One of the delays in former PFG customers getting more money back stems from having to wait for the Forex and Metals customers lawsuit to end. But what’s taking so long, and what is really at stake for futures customers?
04
Feb
2013
Fat Tails and Tall Heads
One of the bigger CTAs in the business – Transtrend – recently released their 2012 review newsletter, and included a deeper discussion of a risk metric we’ve briefly addressed before: Kurtosis. Now, most people aren’t even discussing Kurtosis, much less different aspects of Kurtosis – but you don’t get to $8 billion under management without knowing a thing or two about math, and their insight is definitely worth sharing.
01
Feb
2013
PFGBest Update: The Berkeley Vindication
Following the PFG collapse last July, the NFA hired Berkeley Research Group (BRG) to analyze what had gone wrong. Last night, that report was set live on the NFA website. The review was exhaustive, and was meant to look into what had and hadn’t been done during the NFA audits that had taken place at PFG prior to the discovery of the fraud. The report is out, and contrary to what they’d have you believe, it’s far from pretty.
31
Jan
2013
PFGBest Update: Justice Delivered
With all the heartache and headache that the PFGBest scandal has created, it can be easy to focus on the bad. After all, there’s a lot of it to go around. As frustrating as it’s been, there is one silver lining. Unlike MFGlobal victims, who continue to call for Corzine’s arrest, the perpetrator of these crimes is being held accountable. Today, after staring down 25 to 50 years in prison, the final sentence was delivered by the courts.
30
Jan
2013
This is What Progress Looks Like
We’re used to waiting far longer than we should have to for needed regulatory changes to take place. And although the PFGBest crisis should have never taken place, it’s at least nice to see that some steps are being taken to provide better oversight and protection of customer funds. We’re far from finished, but this is progress.
