Category: Macro Commentary

08 Oct 2012

PFGBest Update: Speeding Up

As many have already heard, there have been some new developments in the PFGBest bankruptcy proceedings. We’ll continue to follow the situation closely, but all in all, there’s really only one thing to say: it’s about time.

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08 Oct 2012

You Are Bad at Making Predictions

There’s a new pop-stats book making the rounds, and it’s been generating quite a bit of buzz – at least, as far as pop-stats books go. Nate Silver, who is probably best known as the author of the New York Times’ FiveThiryEight politics blog, delves into the tricky art of predictioneering in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t. It looks promising, and is certainly going to be on our reading list in the near future.

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04 Oct 2012

PFGBest Update: Will NFA Heads Roll?

The NFA’s failure to detect the fraud at PFGBest was inexcusable – and we’ve been waiting for someone at the NFA to be held accountable. Now there’s news that a senior auditor is headed for the door, but it hardly seems like the kind of justice we were hoping for.

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03 Oct 2012

Smart Money, Dumb Money, and Dumber Money

“Buy low and sell high” is about as cliché as investing clichés get, and so is the sobering reality that most investors fail spectacularly at following this axiom. Unfortunately, it’s not just a stock market phenomenon – and perhaps it would pay to apply the same logical approach more and more people are using when considering the cost of their investment to the process of considering when to enter and exit that investment.

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26 Sep 2012

Bucking Vacuum Mentality

Traditionally, when you read a story, the moral comes at the end – a sound bite takeaway that justifies the time spent. We’re going to try something a little different, though, and provide the moral of the story up front. See, this story has a lot of moving pieces, and it can be all too easy to focus on one point, missing the forest for the trees. So before you even get started here, remember: Nothing happens in a vacuum.

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25 Sep 2012

PFGBest Update: Accounting Complications

As the PFGBest bankruptcy has worn on, it has become clear that the fraud that took place was likely not facilitated via simple, identifiable transfers. It is possible that some of the individual accounts on the books at PFGBest might have been shell accounts used to funnel away client money, and recent comments from Russ Wasendorf Sr. give reason to believe this may be the case – potentially some good news for customers.

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24 Sep 2012

Germany stumbling?

In the midst of the Eurocrisis, Germany has been the beacon of hope. Long the strongest economy in the eye of the storm, they’ve been leaders in the turmoil and the country to watch for hopes of a move forward. However, even with other nations buoyed by the ECB bond buying plan, Germany’s numbers are not all that encouraging.

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21 Sep 2012

Math on the Pedestal

It’s hard to be in finance and not be number nerds. But at the end of the day, is math alone enough to make you competitive? Josh Brown at the Reformed Broker tackled this subject recently, sparking a good conversation about the role of math in giving managers an edge.

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18 Sep 2012

PFGBest Update: What the U.S. Bank Suit Means

In one of the most recent developments in the PFGBest case, as customers await an initial distribution decision from the court, Russ Wasendorf Jr., the former PFGBest Chief Operating Officer and son of Russ Wasendorf, Sr., has filed a suit against U.S. Bank, alleging violations of commodity law that facilitated the fraud and theft of client money. The complaint is certainly worth a read, and it may even contain some hope of good news for PFG customers.

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11 Sep 2012

PFG Best Update: Good Job NFA!

Here’s something you don’t hear around our offices too frequently (or possibly ever before)… Good Job NFA ! While the NFA’s handling of the PFG fiasco belongs in textbooks on how not to do public relations in times of crisis, it looks like someone over there finally woke up and is trying to do the right thing – returning PFG customer money that was used to pay PFG’s regulatory fines.

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