While it’s long been a practice to trade volatility in single name stocks around an event like earnings, with the ability to see the distinct amount of volatility priced into the earnings move – event vol around macro level events has been a less talked about trade. There’s many reasons for that, chief among them […]
Category: Market Commentary
26
Oct
2020
22
Oct
2020
Debunking Trend Following’s Dead Theories with Kathryn Kaminski on The Derivative
Is trend following too big? Can managed futures do it without the bond tailwind they’ve had for 30 years? Does globalization take away diversification? We’re debunking these trend following myths/truths (?) in today’s podcast – and today’s guest is ideal to take us through the ins-and-outs of these trend following theories. We’re joined by Kathryn […]
02
Oct
2020
Asset Class Scoreboard: September 2020
Ouch – after months of rallying classes, September was a rough one (almost a callback to our red wedding in March, but a little better). The September sell-off was all we needed to make nearly all the asset classes head right back into the red, and with anticipated volatility surrounding the election, and now with […]
24
Sep
2020
Sequencing, Skew, and (Option) Strikes with Hari Krishnan on The Derivative
We’re joined by option guru and author of ‘The Second Leg Down’ in this episode to talk through the real-time test of market crashes and volatility dynamics we’ve witnessed since February. Is our guest’s theory on volatility sequencing proving its worth in this environment of bigger VIX spikes, oil going negative, and retail trader flow? […]
21
Sep
2020
Nowhere to run… Nowhere to hide
September has been rather nasty (so far) not just in equities, but across the various asset classes purporting to provide diversification from such down turns. After today’s sell off, the S&P 500 is down around -9% for the month. Gold is off about -3%, Commodities down about -5%, and bonds and TIPS are likewise slightly […]
17
Sep
2020
A Professor, Prop Trader, & Risk Manager Walk Into a Bar, with Victor Canto on The Derivative
The “bar” we walk into in this episode is one that specializes in blending the unique flavors of beta and alpha, and our mixologists are Victor Canto, Chief Economist of Cadhina & Co, and Donn Stobierski & Jim Kleinops, the Founders and Managing Members at Black Bear Capital Advisors joining us to talk about convexity […]
15
Sep
2020
Election Volatility is Here and More Intense Than Ever
October is a historically volatile month (see Oct 08, Oct 87), and the VIX tends to peak in the month, “jumping to [a level of] more than 21… on average over the past 30 years” (CNBC), where we even get the so called October effect or Mark Twain effect. And this October is a particularly […]
10
Sep
2020
Market Up/Vol Up, Market Down/Vol Down…WTF Episode on The Derivative
So – what’s happening in the wide world of volatility? The market moved to new all time highs and the VIX actually went UP. The market then mini-crashed lower and VIX barely budged? WTF indeed? Is it Robinhood traders? It is market makers? Is it sustainable? To break it down we’re doing another of our […]
02
Sep
2020
Retail Traders Rejoice
Has there ever been a better time to be an individual trader, or retail trader as they are sometimes condescendingly called in the professional trading industry. What with Dave Portnoy (DDTG) saying (correctly for now) that stocks only go higher, or Robinhood forcing nearly all brokerages to offer commission free trades for stocks and fractional […]
01
Sep
2020
Asset Class Scoreboard: August 2020
July to August was probably the least movement across that board that we’ve seen so far in 2020. U.S. stocks continue to top the board month over month, as well as U.S. real estate and commodities continuing to trail in the red. Are commodities going to be able to move out of double digit red […]
