With the a compromise on the government shutdown far from over, the question of everyone’s mind from and investment standpoint is, will the stock market take a hit? The natural conclusion could be that investors will pull out their money based on uncertainty of when a compromise will be made. But is that the truth or just the perception based on past shutdowns? Here’s a look at S&P 500 returns after every shutdown dating back to the 1970’s.
Category: Macro Commentary
01
Oct
2013
No Rain, Still Grain, and the Disappearing Live Stock
The start of October in the Ag world means its time for the harvest smell of Soybeans and Corn. Yesterday, the USDA updated their crop report before the government shutdown. M6 is out with a new whitepaper covering this summer’s rain, and how its affecting corn, soybean supplies; as well as a look at the Cattle supply.
01
Oct
2013
Government Shutdown: No CFTC, but SEC stays open
It’s day one of the government shutdown, and the impacts are far reaching… We take a look at how this is affecting the futures industry from a regulatory standpoint, and the unpredictable markets. Plus, a list of federal employees allowed to work, and government shutdown pick up lines.
30
Sep
2013
Morningstar’s Nadia Papagiannis Demystifies Alternatives:
The highlight of last week’s Alternative Investments Conference for us was definitely Morningstar’s Nadia Papagiannis presentation titled, “Demystifying Alternatives: The ABCs of Alternative Assets, Strategies and Vehicles.” We have to hand it to her, she’s a pro when it comes to alternatives. Since Managed Futures got some of the spotlight, we are reviewing definitions, perceptions, allocation, and our takeaway.
24
Sep
2013
Alternative Investment Conference Spotlights Managed Futures
We just couldn’t get enough of the conference action last week with the NIBA and the CTA Expo, and spent the beginning of this week exploring what the “Alternative Investments Conference” has to offer. Here are some highlights from day including the discussion of whether alternative investments should receive a larger portion of portfolio allocation:
23
Sep
2013
5,000 Bushels of Corn on your Lawn
The comment that will never die when having a conversation with people unfamiliar with managed futures and commodities trading is something along the lines of, “So, you ever get a truck full of Corn delivered to your house?” The short answer is no. commodity futures contracts have a finite life, so you don’t actually trade “Corn Futures” but a contract month for Corn. Most of the market is now speculators, and end with cash settlements, and no physical delivery.
20
Sep
2013
The quickest way to manage $1 Billion: start with $5 B
The news today is of a supposed shining star of commodity trading closing up shop, with Clive Capital (managing over $5B AUM at one point) having sent a letter to their clients explaining its “long volatility approach,” didn’t allow for many opportunities in this current market environment, and therefore would be shutting down. While we don’t typically hear about Clive in the managed futures world, it is important to point of their differences.
19
Sep
2013
Managed Futures ‘sort of’ Participate on Bernanke Rollercoaster
Where have we seen this neon green sight before? Oh, that’s right, the last time Fed chairman Bernanke spoke about starting the end of the QE… Managed Futures experienced a risk on day, but did that equate to a larger daily return? Why/ or why not?
18
Sep
2013
Congress creating the next wave of futures traders?
A new bill signed into law now ties student loan interest rates to 10 yr Treasury Note yield, with a cap on just how high the interest rates can go. This has brought both praise and heavy criticism from the media. Being futures folk, this makes us think this may be just the thing to create the next wave of futures traders. You see, all those trillions in student loan debt tied to the 10yr Treasury note could now be hedged against a rise in said 10yr rates via the futures markets. That’s what the futures markets are here for.
12
Sep
2013
What Everybody Ought to Know About Managed Futures Asset Class Growth
The managed futures industry prides itself whenever assets under management is brought into the discussion. It’s grown exponentially over the years (past performance is not necessarily indicative to future results), but as we’ve pointed out before, that total AUM number includes the largest Hedge Fund in the world — Bridgewater — which we don’t consider to part of the group. This suggests that this AUM number can be quite deceiving, so we decided to recreate total AUM without the growth from Bridgewater, and managed futures’ largest program, Winton. Plus, a look at the managed futures quarterly growth numbers and why it might be just what managed futures is looking for.
